• $4.5 billion in BTC and ETH options expire as traders stay cautious in thin year-end liquidity.
• Balanced call–put positioning signals contained volatility despite negative skew and ETF outflows.
• Long-term momentum holds, but near-term catalysts needed to break BTC and ETH out of range.

Almost $4.5 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options are set to expire at 8:00 UTC today, December 12, 2025.

Today’s expiring options come amid cautious market sentiment as traders navigate thin year-end liquidity and recent macro developments.

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Traders Brace for $4.5 Billion Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry After Fed’s Interest Rate Cut

Bitcoin’s current price sits at $92,249, with a “max pain” level of $90,000. The market has 18,974 call contracts and 20,852 put contracts open, totaling 39,826 in open interest. This results in a put-to-call ratio of 1.10 and a notional value of roughly $3.7 billion.

Deribit notes that call and put interest is near balance, suggesting traders expect a contained expiry after recent range-bound action.

“The clustering around $90,000 reflects a market waiting for the next catalyst rather than leaning into directional conviction,” they wrote.

Ethereum, trading at $3,242, has a max pain level of $3,100. Open interest totals 237,879 contracts, comprising 107,282 calls and 130,597 puts, resulting in a put-to-call ratio of 1.22 and a notional value of nearly $770 million.

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Deribit analysts observe that while ETH’s positioning has shifted into a more neutral distribution, call concentration above $3,400 indicates traders remain willing to price in potential volatility.

Macro Backdrop Supports Markets, But Caution Prevails

Analysts at Greeks.live note that the Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate cut and resumption of $40 billion in short-term Treasury purchases provide liquidity support. Yet, the broader market remains cautious.

“Calling this a QE reboot or the start of a new bull market is premature,” they said, emphasizing that year-end periods historically see the weakest liquidity conditions in crypto.

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More than half of open interest is clustered at December 26 expiries, and implied volatility has been trending lower. This suggests subdued expectations for near-term price swings.

The options market shows a persistent negative skew, with puts trading at a premium to calls. This reflects both a stable spot environment that has revived covered-call strategies and ongoing market weakness driving demand for downside protection.

Greeks.live notes that while structural conditions remain soft, traders should remain vigilant for potential upside catalysts, although the probability of sharp moves is low.

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Near-Term Risks vs. Long-Term Momentum

Deribit analysts also highlighted short-term pressures from ETF outflows, MicroStrategy losing premium, and miner stress.

“There’s definitely risks in the near term… We’ll need one of those structural things to change,” Deribit wrote, citing Sean McNulty, Derivatives Trading Lead APAC at FalconX.

Despite these near-term challenges, longer-term momentum in both BTC and ETH remains intact, suggesting that the current expiry may be contained unless a new catalyst emerges.

As markets brace for the expiry of $4.5 billion in options, traders appear focused on maintaining balanced positions while monitoring both macro liquidity conditions and crypto-specific catalysts for potential moves into the new year.

In the short term, traders should brace for volatility due to this tranche of expiring options, which could influence market prices into the weekend. However, the market could stabilize thereafter as traders adjust to new trading environments.

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