XRP has faced a period of stagnation in recent weeks, with its price struggling to gain significant direction. After a series of recent bullish developments, the altcoin’s macro-scale price action has shown signs of saturation. 

Despite the positive catalysts, XRP remains stuck in a consolidation phase, making it difficult to predict its next move.  Temujin Louie, CEO of Wanchain, spoke to BeInCrypto about the impact of these external catalysts but leaned towards them failing to trigger any rallies.

“While the SEC dropping its years-long lawsuit against Ripple Labs is undoubtedly a net positive, it hasn’t triggered an immediate surge in XRP’s value because this development doesn’t directly improve utility or drive adoption. XRP remains today as it was before and during the SEC lawsuit,” said Louie.

The ongoing hype and discussions surrounding XRP ETFs have also been impacting the volatility. Investors have been expecting prices to surge owing to the potential of a new XRP ETF.

“Speculation around an XRP ETF hasn’t generated the same excitement as BTC or ETH ETFs. The market’s enthusiasm for crypto ETFs diminishes with each subsequent approval. The 4th, 5th and 6th-approved asset just become one of many, as the novelty of crypto ETFs wears off,” Louie noted.

XRP Is Repeating History

XRP’s Network Utilization and Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator shows that the altcoin is currently saturating. This suggests that there has been little progress in terms of price movement, and XRP needs strong market cues to take a clear direction. Historically, XRP has experienced similar consolidation phases.

Back in 2017, the coin consolidated for nine months before a massive boom that saw prices surge. However, after breaching key levels, XRP entered a period of consolidation followed by a sharp decline. The same pattern could be happening now, with XRP facing a four-month consolidation period, which may signal a potential correction in the near future.

Following into Bitcoin’s footsteps is another thing that XRP did back in the day, but Hank Huang, Chief Executive Officer at Kronos Research hinted in a different direction.

“Despite its liquidity remaining thin within the altcoin market, lagging behind the depth of Bitcoin. XRP is neither fully following Bitcoin’s ETF-fueled ascent nor carving a clear independent path. The recent Ethereum ETF outflows, observed recently, underscore a market tilt toward Bitcoin, as investors appear to favor BTC’s perceived stability and ‘digital gold’ narrative over altcoins. This shift suggests that bullish sentiment is consolidating around Bitcoin rather than dispersing across the broader altcoin market, leaving XRP struggling to attract the institutional momentum needed to break out of its current rut,” Huang stated.

The HODLer Position Change metric, which tracks long-term holders’ behavior, reveals that LTHs (Long-Term Holders) have been accumulating XRP during this consolidation phase. This accumulation suggests that LTHs are confident that XRP will eventually capitalize on a future price increase. 

Their ongoing conviction has helped support XRP’s price despite the stagnation and market uncertainty. This accumulation could be a sign that, when the market conditions improve, XRP may see a surge in value, as these holders are not looking to sell in the near term.

This accumulation by LTHs acts as a stabilizing factor, preventing the price from dipping significantly despite the market’s lack of strong direction. 

Will XRP Fail This Crucial Breach Again?

At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $2.20, having failed to breach the key resistance level of $2.56 last week. This resistance has proven to be a significant barrier over the past four months, limiting any major upward movement for the altcoin. Until XRP can break through this level, it will likely remain trapped within its current range.

With mixed signals from the market, XRP may face challenges in gaining momentum. If market conditions do not improve in Q2 2025, the altcoin could experience a decline towards $2.02 or potentially lower if it falls through the $2.14 support level. Such a decline would indicate that a corrective move could follow the saturation phase.

For the bearish outlook to be invalidated, XRP needs to breach and flip the $2.56 resistance into support. Doing so would open the door for a price increase, pushing XRP beyond the $2.95 and $3.00 levels. This would also bring XRP closer to its all-time high (ATH) of $3.40, signaling that the altcoin could finally resume its bullish trajectory after the period of consolidation.