If the US is headed for a recession, or even if Americans think it might be, the amount of income they want to spend on monthly streaming subscriptions might see a dip, analysts tell WIRED.

Last week, President Donald Trump rolled out a policy that places a blanket 10 percent tariff on goods coming from most of the US’s trading partners, plus additional hefty import duties on countries in key regions like Europe and Asia. Mostly, these costs will affect consumer products like cars and sneakers, but they may also make it harder for people to justify subscriptions they use only once or twice a week when there’s a new episode of The Last of Us or Severance.

Generally, streaming services like Netflix, Hulu, and Disney+ are just that: services, not goods, so they don’t face any kind of markup when they cross borders. But at a time when the stock market is in “chaos,” the economic uncertainty caused by Trump’s tariffs is sure to have impacts on those services—and how much people are willing to pay for them.

Discretionary spending, says Paul Erickson, an analyst at Omdia who watches the streaming market closely, often takes a hit during economic downturns—specifically: “You might start getting more strategic about how that budget is spent on streaming subscriptions.” Generally when this happens, there are certain services, like Netflix, that viewers will prioritize, but more niche offerings like, say, Apple TV+ could end up on the chopping block.

Following Trump’s tariff announcement last Wednesday, the S&P 500, the stock market index that tracks hundreds of top US companies, dropped about 11 percent. It has rallied somewhat, as talk has circulated that Trump might be willing to negotiate trade deals, but that hasn’t stopped some from fearing the worst.

In some ways, streaming services have insulated themselves from some of these impacts. In recent years as they’ve aimed to hold on to the customers gained during the Covid-19 pandemic, they’ve begun offering bundled services or made their content available through deals with cable companies and internet providers like Spectrum and Comcast.

Streamers have also made themselves more appealing by offering ad-supported tiers, which allow viewers to access streaming services if they’re willing to watch a commercial or two, often for less than $10 per month. Earlier this year, Disney reported that some 112 million customers across Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ were streaming with ads, according to CNBC; in late 2024, Disney executives said more than half of new Disney+ subscribers were opting for plans with ads.

That could present a problem. Since some of the biggest industries being hit by tariffs—like automakers—are also big advertisers, the amount those companies spend on ads could slip.

“With streaming platform operators increasingly turning to ad-supported tiers to bolster profitability—rather than just rolling out price increases—this strategy could be put at risk,” says Matthew Bailey, who analyzes advertising for Omdia. “Against this backdrop, I wouldn’t be surprised if we do see some price increases for some streaming services over the coming months.”

There are other factors at play, too, including the fact that some streaming services are operated by companies that also sell consumer goods. Shares of Apple, which makes most of its iPhones, tablets, and computers in countries hit hard by tariffs, dropped 9 percent after last week’s announcement. The company’s stock price has continued to plummet since—as of Monday it had lost about $638 billion in market cap—and while there are signs Apple could rebound, the tariffs could have long-term effects for the tech giant.

Does that mean fewer seasons of Severance? Erickson doesn’t necessarily think so. According to a recent report in The Information, Apple already loses about $1 billion per year on streaming, and it likely wouldn’t part easily with its most beloved series. But, Erickson says, there may be less of an appetite for smaller indie projects, and if the US economy finds itself in a protracted downturn, it’s likely studios will tighten their belts when it comes to green-lighting new shows across the streaming landscape.

“It’s unfortunate for the creative sector, but [streaming services have] gotten a lot more strategic in how they spend their money to commission original content,” Erickson says.

As for what happens outside of the US in response to the tariffs, there’s already talk of other countries responding with their own taxes on US services. That might be a ways out, but as recently as Tuesday prominent Chinese bloggers were talking about measures reportedly being discussed by local officials to reduce or ban the import of US films or increase Chinese tariffs on US services.

Ultimately, a lot of this remains to be seen. Streaming, one of the more affordable entertainment options around, has the potential to stay in consumers’ budgets longer than, say, new cars or iPhones. But that doesn’t mean they’ll stay there forever.