A few months ago, at the SmallSat Symposium, a panel issued a sobering warning to space startups: do not chase defence dollars at the expense of long-term sustainability. Why? Because companies, particularly in the space sector, might be tempted to follow the money rather than focus on producing valuable products and services with broader, longer-term applications. It’s of course true that any company should be wary of “leaning in” too closely to what seem like passing fads. But the warning overlooks an important reality: the shift towards defence investing is not a trend. It’s a transformation in space and space investment, and one that will have positive — albeit unintended — consequences.

Across the space sector, there has been a noticeable shift towards focusing on pure defence investing. Companies that once prioritised commercial applications, or at most maintained dual-use business models, are now making full-scale pivots to defence. Needless to say, that move isn’t random. It’s the product of geopolitical changes, such as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and a widespread belief that the world is changing. As Michael Gove, who served in the Cabinets of four British prime ministers, put it recently: “The ideal of a rules-based international order, where multilateral institutions restrain states pursuing their self-interest, has proved to be a false hope… we are back to a world closer to that of Thucydides in which the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.”

The change is happening at the public sector level, too. In 2024, global governmental expenditure on space programmes surged to $135 billion (€119 billion) — up 10% from the year before. The primary driver was rising defence budgets. A recent Bruegel report concluded that without support from the United States, “Europe could need 300,000 more troops and an annual defence spending hike of at least €250 billion” to keep the continent safe. As geopolitical tensions rise, governments worldwide have been funnelling money into space-based defence technology, a recognition that the sector is the cornerstone of any modern military.

One of the unintended yet highly beneficial consequences of this shift among startups is its impact on the private space sector. Increased defence investment is breathing new life into aerospace and deep-tech innovation. Companies that previously struggled to secure commercial funding are now benefiting from sustained government investment, allowing them to work on cutting-edge technologies. These include (among many others) optical communications, needed for secure and high-speed space-based data transmission; Earth observation, crucial for climate monitoring, disaster response, and resource management; and synthetic aperture radar (SAR), enabling all-weather, day-and-night imaging capabilities with high precision.

Despite the opportunities that await here, moving from purely commercial to defence markets is not without its hurdles. Startups can face significant challenges. Government contracts often come with delayed payments and long procurement cycles, creating cashflow issues for smaller firms that lack financial reserves. Defence-related technologies are subject to stringent export controls and compliance requirements, heaping bureaucratic burdens on startups that many are ill-equipped to bear.

But for those companies that make the pivot successfully, the rewards far outweigh these obstacles. Defence funding provides long-term stability and a runway for companies to develop world-class technology that may later be commercialised in other sectors. In other words, to pivot into space isn’t necessarily to leave behind the commercial world.

Some startups are making full-blown pivots to defence, but the real sweet spot remains in the world of dual-use technology — those innovations that serve both commercial and defence markets. Companies that maintain this balance benefit from diverse revenue streams, greater resilience to market fluctuations, and the ability to shift emphasis as commercial demand evolves.

The success of this dual-use approach is plain to see in the companies that have seamlessly integrated their offerings across sectors. Take the SAR satellite company ICEYE, whose data is used in flood response, maritime activity monitoring, and conflict zones like Ukraine. Or FibreCoat, whose advanced materials protect satellites from the harsh conditions of space, regardless of what those satellites are used for.

Given the scale of government investment, as well as the ongoing volatility in the broader geopolitical landscape, it’s highly unlikely that the present shift in focus towards defence is merely a fad. There is a new world order in place, and national security considerations will play a defining role in geopolitics for years to come.

However, the space sector’s ultimate goal should be a balanced ecosystem where defence and commercial efforts reinforce one another. The current surge in defence spending is helping accelerate technological innovation, funding infrastructure that will benefit the commercial sector in the long run. As companies continue to develop dual-use applications, they can ensure that the innovations sparked by defence priorities also drive broader commercial progress.

That’s good news because space touches almost every area of modern life. It’s the backbone of the world economy. It plays a vital role in navigation, communication, connectivity, and sustainability. The space economy is projected to reach $1.8 trillion (€1.58 trillion) by 2035, according to a report by McKinsey and the World Economic Forum. We may well be entering a new golden age for the industry, one in which entrepreneurs have access to more capital, investors are more willing to back high-risk ventures, and technology development is progressing at an unprecedented pace.

If companies can navigate the challenges of defence contracting while remaining mindful of the broader commercial applications of their products, the entire space ecosystem stands to benefit. For startups, the key will be balancing short-term defence opportunities with long-term strategic growth, so ensuring that today’s pivot does not become tomorrow’s dead end. But if the evolution towards greater defence investing is managed wisely by all involved parties, it could propel the space industry into its most vibrant era yet.

Defence tech will be a hot topic at TNW Conference, which takes place in Amsterdam on June 19-20. Tickets for the event are now on sale — use the code TNWXMEDIA2025 at the checkout to get 30% off.