The quantum timeline accelerates 

This practical urgency is driven by an increasingly compressed timeline for quantum threats. Experts initially estimated 10-15 years before quantum computers would pose genuine risks to current encryption standards. That timeline has now shortened considerably, partly because artificial intelligence (AI) is accelerating the development of quantum technology.

“AI will spoil the cards in a good form, and it can enhance and quicken the real examples of applications and algorithms that can use a quantum machine to break the encryption algorithm,” Lozhkin said. “Realistically, it’s not 15 years. I think it’s more five to 10 years.” 

Governments and corporations are investing heavily in quantum computing research and development, signalling strategic importance. Industry roadmaps suggest thousands of qubits will be available in the 2030s, with Google aiming for approximately one million qubits by 2030. Some 10 leading countries have established national programmes focused on quantum development, with 10 robust systems plausible within a decade. 

The compressed timeline becomes more concerning when examining the specific threats quantum computing poses to the current cyber security infrastructure. Research has identified three critical risks that demand immediate attention: 

• The “store now, decrypt later” threat represents perhaps the most immediate concern. Nation-state actors are already harvesting encrypted communications with the intention of decrypting them once quantum capabilities advance. This poses a threat to sensitive diplomatic, financial, and commercial communications that retain value for years or decades. 

• Blockchain networks face vulnerability through quantum attacks on cryptocurrency foundations. Bitcoin’s Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) could be compromised by quantum computers capable of recovering private keys from public information. Bitcoin public keys become exposed after the first transaction, creating potential attack vectors for quantum-enabled adversaries. 

• Quantum-resistant ransomware presents a new frontier for cyber criminals. Advanced ransomware operators may adopt post-quantum cryptography to protect their malicious payloads, creating encryption that resists both classical and quantum decryption attempts.  

The Middle Eastern advantage 

The UAE’s quantum leadership extends beyond regulatory frameworks to talent acquisition and research investment. The region’s financial resources enable aggressive recruitment of quantum researchers from Europe and America, creating a brain drain effect that compounds its advantages. 

“The government really puts an effort into attracting people because they can provide a lot of finance to any bright mind in this area,” Lozhkin said. “They can finance these researchers, they can buy people, they can pay them huge salaries.” 

This approach has created a virtuous cycle: substantial government investment attracts top talent, which generates research breakthroughs that justify further investment. The UAE is now hosting major quantum computing summits featuring professors from Harvard and Stanford universities, as well as quantum physicists and engineers who have developed quantum processors. 

The region’s quantum ambitions are substantial. “When it comes to quantum, I think they aim to be top five absolutely, top three maybe,” Lozhkin said. “They want to be on the top level in terms of research because it gives you global power in every aspect.” 

European lessons

For European organisations, the Middle Eastern approach offers several practical lessons. The first involves taking quantum threats seriously now, rather than waiting for perfect regulatory frameworks. Companies processing sensitive data should begin implementing post-quantum cryptography today, recognising that transitioning to quantum-resistant systems will take years. 

The second lesson concerns the importance of listening to technical experts rather than being paralysed by policy uncertainties. The UAE’s success stems partly from creating direct channels between quantum researchers and policymakers, ensuring that regulations reflect technical realities rather than theoretical frameworks. 

Ultimately, the Middle Eastern experience demonstrates that quantum preparedness necessitates substantial and sustained investment. Half-measures and pilot projects will not suffice when facing threats that could render current cyber security obsolete overnight. 

As 2025 progresses, the window for preparation continues to narrow. Deloitte’s 2024 Global future of cyber survey reports that 83% of organisations are already assessing quantum computing risks, yet few have implemented concrete preparedness measures. 

The Middle East’s quantum leadership suggests that regions willing to embrace technical expertise and invest substantially in quantum preparedness will gain significant advantages in the coming post-quantum era. For European organisations still navigating regulatory uncertainties, the question is whether they can afford to wait for perfect policies whilst others implement practical solutions. 

The quantum future is not a distant theoretical concern – it is a practical challenge requiring immediate action. The Middle East has recognised this reality and acted accordingly. Europe’s response will determine whether it remains competitive in the quantum-enabled cyber security landscape or finds itself perpetually playing catch-up to more decisive regions. 

The most critical risk lies not really in the future, but in the present: encrypted data with long-term value is already at risk from future decryption,” Lozhkin said. “The security decisions we make today will define the resilience of our digital infrastructure for decades.”