Needless to say, Sir Martin makes his views known. 

“People, including you, ask for my views,” said Sir Martin in an email to Digiday in response to a request for comment on this story. “I’ve spent almost 50 years at Saatchi & Saatchi, WPP and S4Capital — perhaps, as a continued shareholder in WPP, I have some helpful experience and views.”

Helpful or not, those views come with baggage. S4 Capital, the company he built in response to the holdco model he now criticizes, has lost 97% of its market value, issued multiple profit warnings and been caught in the crosswinds of shifting ad budgets. His pointed commentary hasn’t gone unnoticed. 

“I only wish he was as vocal and clear minded on what needs to be done at S4,” said Anthony Freedman, CEO of marketing services group Common Interest and a shareholder of S4 Capital, on LinkedIn.

Sir Martin sees no contradiction. He’s clear-eyed about S4’s challenges — but sees them as macroeconomic not structural. The plan, as he told Digiday, is to stay the course — tighten operations, ride out the volatility and focus on growth in the Americas, Middle East and APAC where clients are still chasing gains. In Europe, he’s betting on a push for greater efficiency and effectiveness. 

S4 Capital, he insisted, was built for moments like this — when clients demand more for less and faster. 

The company is focused “on top-line growth with our existing clients and new ones, improved operating margins and liquidity, focussing particularly on improved pricing, billability and reducing duplication,” he wrote. 

But markets don’t trade on messaging alone. In September 2021, S4 Capital’s shares peaked at $12.25. Today, they hover near 30 cents. 

Whether there’s an actual bounceback is unclear — but Sir Martin sees one. He points to a current blue-chip client list that includes Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, GM, T-Mobile and Walmart as well as a newly won CPG advertiser he declined to name, as proof that the model still works. As for the broader slowdown in ad dollars from tech clients? That was inevitable, he said. 

“With 50% of our almost $1B of revenues coming from tech there has been pressure on opex and hence marketing as the “Magnificient 7” and others spend over half a trillion dollars on AI-related capex,” wrote Sir Martin. 

What’s certain is this: Sir Martin’s critique of the holding company model may still resonate, but the industry feels that it hits differently when coming from someone whose own reinvention is under just as much strain. 

“What you have to question is, does he provide enough day-to-day leadership?,” said one source who knows Sir Martin well.

But it wasn’t always like this. 

In its early days, S4 Capital had momentum. Launched in 2018 with Sir Martin freshly out of WPP, the company moved quickly — acquiring MediaMonks and MightyHive within months, and landing marquee clients like Procter & Gamble, Nestle, Mondelez and Bayer in its first year. 

“I always thought the work from them was outstanding, and a big part of that was down to the people who worked there,” said a senior marketer familiar with the group’s pitch, speaking on condition of anonymity. “They weren’t just typical ad agency people, they were from tech and consulting backgrounds.”

For a time, this was the story of S4 Capital: proof that a tech-first approach could disrupt the industry. But as the years went on, the cracks began to show.

Audit delays in 2022 rocked investor confidence. The following year brought revised revenue guidance — twice — along with 500 layoffs and pressure on margins. The stock cratered. By 2024, S4 Capital was still playing defense, issuing fresh profit warnings and watching its tech-heavy client base pull back on spending. In the background, a CFO change signaled yet another attempt to restore stability. 

“The person at the top is all about finance models and therefore doesn’t put anywhere near enough emphasis on people and the actual operating of the business,” said an exec familiar with S4’s plans, who exchanged anonymity for candor.

As the issues mounted up, so did the tensions at the top. S4 Capital’s equity-heavy acquisition model, which had once helped close deals, began to backfire as the share price fell. Founders who had bought into Sir Martin’s vision started to disengage. 

“The model of 50% cash and 50% equity works when the share price is growing,” the same exec said. “But as soon as it starts falling, all the owners of the acquired companies become extremely disgruntled, demotivated and less productive.”

Despite these issues, few in the industry are ready to count Sir Martin out. His track record, stubbornness and proximity to power still matter. But there’s a growing sense — even amongst those who admire him — that the public markets may no longer be the right arena. 

“In 12 months’ time, I believe S4 Capital will not exist in its current form,” said an ad exec, with knowledge of the internal issues at the business. 

Industry chatter suggests that delisting is one option. A merger or acquisition is another. Some believe parts of the business could be spun out through a management buyout. However it unfolds, the status quo isn’t expected to hold. 

Sir Martin did not comment on any of these potential routes for the company.

“I don’t think any public company chairman could or should answer that,” he wrote.” At S4 Capital, I’m focussed on long-term shareowner value maximization and acting in the best interests of all shareowners.”

Where S4 will end up is anyone’s guess. It certainly can’t keep headed in the same direction it’s been going. Sir Martin knows what’s wrong with holding companies, but has not yet proven he knows how to build the alternative.