A cynical ear might detect a note of disappointment in that lack of detail. If that sounds pessimistic, consider the fact Netflix’s share price fell in the after-hours trading following its earnings call. Both shareholders and the platform’s executives would like ad revenues to rise farther and faster.

The platform has 94 million monthly active subscribers to its ad-supported tier (as of May), and a recent Madison & Wall estimate suggested its global ad revenues could reach $3 billion this year, equal to roughly seven percent of its annual revenue. But according to the Wall Street Journal, it’s internally forecasting that to rise to $9 billion in the next five years.

The good news, according to several media buyers at holding companies and large independents, some of whom spoke to Digiday anonymously in order to preserve their relationships with the streamer, is that Netlix now has a significant foothold on client media plans — one that’s likely to grow once the dust has finally settled on upfronts season.

“Netflix is way up,” said Eric Dunefsky, head of national investment at Crossmedia. 

Reflecting on the final days and weeks of this year’s drawn-out television upfronts, PMG’s head of emerging services Natalee Geldert previously told Digiday that more advertisers were diverting TV budgets into ad-supported streaming, and that Netflix was a standout winner of that shift. 

“They’re gaining traction quickly,” she said. All of which points to Netflix maintaining its current double-digit revenue growth over coming months.

eMarketer analyst Jeremy Goldman estimated that Netflix currently enjoys a 5.2% market share in the U.S.; eMarketer estimates its current CTV ad revenues at $1.67 billion a year, out of a $31.9 billion CTV ad market. But the company is growing from a small base and is gaining on its peers, even as the overall segment expands. Video on demand ad spend in the U.K., for example, grew 26% to £1.33bn ($1.77 billion) last year, according to Ofcom.

“[Netflix] is growing as a percentage of overall video ad spending,” Goldman said.

One holdco media buyer, who exchanged candor for anonymity, told Digiday the platform was now among their top five CTV partners for ad spend. Client investment had doubled in the last year (they didn’t provide exact figures) driven by an expansion of its live programming, continued investment in its premium programming and Netflix’s decision to open up to more DSPs. The latter is an ongoing focus for the streamer, which allows brands to invest programmatic budget via DSPs operated by Microsoft, The Trade Desk, DV360 and as of June, Yahoo.

Average CPMs (cost per thousand) hover at $30, representing a much more “competitive” price point than when Netflix first set up its stall at the end of 2022 (though streaming prices are generally higher than those of linear). “They’re priced more effectively than they have been. It’s created the runway for all these partnerships,” the buyer added.

For the second buyer, who also asked for anonymity, the streamer’s moves to acquire WWE and NFL rights in recent years have drawn in clients, they said, while its maturing programmatic capabilities would likely pull in further spending over the rest of the year.

A third holdco agency executive told Digiday its premium content slate had proven magnetic for client dollars. “Their unique content properties contribute to clients making sure that they’re spending with Netflix. Their sponsorships and their integrations with particular properties are coveted,” they said.

The bad news? Some clients are waiting to see how Netflix’s in-house ad tech stack, its measurement capabilities and its partnerships with the broader ad industry pan out before dedicating more dollars.

“They still aren’t where the largest streaming partners are in terms of the measurement capabilities that they have. That is something that they’re working on, and they’ve made a lot of promises, but I want to see that come to fruition,” said the second buyer. 

Multi-touch attribution measurement, as well as more information on the context of programming surrounding ads running on Netflix for brand safety monitoring purposes, are near the top of marketers’ CTV shopping lists, Goldman said.

These concerns apply to the other players in Netflix’s competitive set, as well as to the broader CTV marketplace. In 2024, the average CTV ad campaign running through Innovid’s ad tech platform – which spans 95 million U.S. households – only reached 19.6% of those households. 

But Amazon also has a diversity of data sources, ad formats and e-commerce tie-ins to tempt clients, while HBO, Paramount, and Disney boast legacy infrastructure and decades of expertise dealing with advertisers. For now, Netflix sits in the uncomfortable middle ground. 

“There’s still work to do in making CTV behave more like other digital channels,” said Esme Robinson, director, platform solutions at Epsilon. “The data exists but stitching it together across platforms and devices remains a challenge for many.”

“The specific platforms that will win budgets will be the ones delivering outcomes, but with transparency – proving they’re reaching the right people in the right context, with the right message,” she added.

Netflix has the measurement problem in its sights. Within the last year, it’s expanded its roster to include deals with Affinity Solutions, DoubleVerify, EDO Inc, Integral Ad Science, iSpotTV, Kantar, Lucid, NCSolutions, Nielsen and TVision. Such partners are crucial to unlocking larger commitments from brands, because marketers want to see viewership and engagement metrics confirmed by third parties.

And on the recent analyst call, co-CEO Greg Peters promised analysts that the company had plotted out a “significant roadmap of features,” including “things like improved targeting and measurement”.

That’s in line with brand demands – but they’ll need to see the proof in the pudding, before unlocking the kind of spend the streamer hopes to secure.

https://digiday.com/?p=584433