Hedera (HBAR) has been up more than 40% over the past three months. However, its recent performance suggests that those gains are at risk.

In the last 24 hours, HBAR’s price dropped by over 4%, and its one-month losing streak has now extended to more than 11%. With sellers in control, HBAR is in a key zone. The only potential support comes from a very unlikely source.

Fading Interest Fuels Sellers’ Control

A look at on-chain data shows why buyers have stepped back. Hedera’s social dominance, which tracks how much discussion it generates across crypto platforms, has collapsed.

On July 13, it stood at 2.417%, but by late August, it had fallen to just 0.515% — a decline of almost 80%. This drop in attention has been mirrored by weak buying flows.

For example, net flows to exchanges increased sharply over the past month. On July 21, buying pressure was measured at -46.48 million tokens, while by August 25, it had only improved to -12.24 million.

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That represents a 73% reduction in buying pressure, signalling that sellers remain ahead. The lack of buyer conviction explains why every small bounce has been sold into, keeping the HBAR price on a steady downward path.

Derivatives Positioning Is Bearish, But Also the Only Ally

The weakness is not limited to spot trading. Derivatives markets tell the same story. On platforms like Bitget, open positions are heavily skewed toward shorts.

Short leverage stands at $103.97 million, compared with just $34.78 million in long positions — nearly 200% more shorts than longs.

This lopsided positioning is clearly bearish. However, it also creates an unlikely ally.

If the HBAR price gains upward momentum from broader market moves, the heavy concentration of shorts between $0.23 and $0.26 could be liquidated.

In simple terms, traders betting against HBAR might be forced to buy back their positions quickly, pushing the price higher in a short squeeze. While the core sentiment remains negative, this imbalance provides the only visible catalyst for a rebound.

However, if the price corrects further, the small yet significant long positions could also face liquidation risks, pushing the HBAR price lower.

Hedera (HBAR) Price Hangs by a Thread

At press time, HBAR price trades around $0.231. Lose $0.23, and the next slide toward $0.22 becomes likely, more so with the Bull-Bear Power (BBP) indicator flipping strongly into the negative zone.

The Bull-Bear Power indicator measures the balance between buyers and sellers. It compares the highest price a token reaches in a given period with its average price. If the value is positive, it suggests buyers are pushing prices higher. If it is negative, it shows sellers have more control.

If $0.226 breaks, new local lows could await the HBAR price. Yet, if a squeeze starts, the first rebound zone is just above $0.26. Clearing that area would open room to build a larger move, but until then, sellers remain in control.

Without help from a short squeeze, HBAR price risks printing new local lows despite its solid three-month gain.