• Short-term and long-term NUPL metrics show multi-month lows, signaling exhaustion and possible market bottoming.
• Hidden bullish divergence on RSI suggests XRP’s larger uptrend may soon resume after weeks of correction.
• Death crossovers completed, with $2.44 and $2.59 acting as key breakout levels to confirm a new recovery trend.

XRP price has dropped nearly 23% over the past 30 days, extending one of its steepest declines this quarter. However, the token has shown its first signs of recovery — rising 6% in the past 24 hours — as several technical and on-chain metrics suggest the worst may be over.

Together, these signals point to fading selling pressure and the early signs of a potential rebound.

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Investor Losses Hint at a Market Bottom

Recent on-chain data shows that investors are reaching exhaustion, a sign often seen when a market is close to bottoming out.

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) measures whether investors are sitting on profits or losses. When it turns deeply negative, it means most holders are in loss, usually a sign of capitulation.

For XRP, the short-term holder NUPL has now dropped to a one-year low of –0.20 as of October 17, with the token trading near $2.30.

The last time it reached such local lows was in April and June, both followed by sharp rebounds. For example, on April 8, when NUPL hit –0.13, XRP gained 20% in four days. On June 22, with NUPL at –0.15, it rallied 74% in a month.

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The long-term holder NUPL, which tracks older investors, has also fallen to a six-month low of 0.53. A similar low earlier this month led to a short-term XRP price bounce from $2.38 to $2.62, a 10% rise.

Both readings dropping together suggest widespread fatigue among holders and a potential setup for recovery.

Momentum Indicators Support the Reversal View

The XRP price momentum is now validating the on-chain losses reflected by NUPL. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) — a technical tool that measures how strong or weak price movements are — is showing what’s known as a hidden bullish divergence.

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Between April 7 and October 10, XRP’s price formed a higher low, while RSI made a lower low. This usually happens when the market is still in an uptrend but is temporarily cooling off. The signal suggests that, despite recent weakness, the underlying strength of XRP, since April, remains intact.

This alignment between NUPL exhaustion and RSI divergence reinforces the idea that XRP’s correction could be ending, setting the stage for an early recovery.

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Key Levels to Confirm an XRP Price Recovery

The technical XRP price structure also supports this view. Three death crossovers — where short-term moving averages cross below longer ones — have already completed. The 20-day EMA has fallen under the 100-day and 200-day, and the 50-day has dropped below the 100-day.

These signals often appear near the end of a bearish phase, suggesting the correction may have run its course.

The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is a line that smooths price data to show the overall direction more clearly.

The XRP price trades near $2.35 at press time. A daily close above $2.44 would mark the first sign of strength, while a confirmed move above $2.59 — near the 200-day EMA — could clear the way toward $2.82 and $3.10.

If the price slips below $2.28, however, the recovery setup would weaken, and the XRP price could retest support at $2.08 or even $1.77, likely its broader cycle bottom.

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