Things are about to get messy for free, over-the-air TV.

This week, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) passed a notice of proposed rulemaking that’s designed to allow broadcast TV stations to adopt the emerging ATSC 3.0 broadcast standard more quickly. If the FCC enacts these rule changes, broadcasters will no longer need to support the ATSC 1.0 standard that works with most TVs and tuners. Instead, they’ll be able to scale back their ATSC 1.0 coverage and even switch over to the new standard entirely.

Broadcasters say they have no incentive to abandon ATSC 1.0 anytime soon, and that the rule changes would just give them more flexibility to support the new standard. Viewers, however, stand to lose clarity on how long their existing TVs will keep working with an antenna, and whether they’ll keep getting all the same content.

Here’s what to expect next.

What’s ATSC 3.0 again?

ATSC 3.0, also known as NextGen TV, brings new capabilities to over-the-air broadcasts, including 4K HDR video, enhanced dialog, Dolby Atmos audio, and interactive content. Broadcasters started rolling out ATSC 3.0 in 2019, and stations in more than 90 U.S. markets now carry ATSC 3.0 channels.

ATSC 3.0 is not backwards compatible, so viewers can’t access it unless their TV has an ATSC 3.0 tuner, or they have an outboard ATSC tuner box. Most TVs continue to ship with only ATSC 1.0 support, and external tuner boxes still cost upwards of $90. Only about 11 percent of U.S. households can get ATSC 3.0 today, based on broadcasters’ estimate of about 14 million compatible TVs sold to date.

Broadcasters continue to support ATSC 1.0 today largely because of ATSC 3.0’s low adoption, but they’re also required to do so. Under current FCC rules, broadcasters offering ATSC 3.0 must simulcast “substantially similar” content under the old standard through at least July 17, 2027.

Further complicating matters is ATSC 3.0’s use of digital rights management (DRM). Many broadcasters now encrypt their ATSC 3.0 channels, causing occasional problems for TV owners and inhibiting new over-the-air DVR products. This has only alienated the very tech enthusiasts and early adopters who otherwise might have advocated for ATSC 3.0’s success.

All this has left ATSC 3.0 in a conundrum. The simulcasting requirements limit what broadcasters can put on their ATSC 3.0 stations, which in turn keeps demand low and leaves TV makers with little incentive to invest in new tuner technology. That, in turn, prevents viewers from having access to ATSC 3.0, making it harder for broadcasters to leave ATSC 1.0 behind.

How long will ATSC 1.0 last?

Broadcasters believe that freedom from simulcasting requirements will help them solve that conundrum. They’ve been petitioning the FCC to drop its simulcasting rules, set firm cutoff dates for ATSC 1.0, and even mandate that TV manufacturers include ATSC 3.0 support.

This week, the FCC tentatively granted one of those three wishes, proposing to drop the requirement that broadcasters simulcast in ATSC 1.0 through mid-2027. If the commission votes to approve the new rules, broadcasters will be able to switch over to ATSC 3.0 at any time with just a 30-day notice to viewers.

The FCC has also proposed relaxing the rules for stations that voluntarily continue to offer ATSC 1.0. Broadcasters seeking expedited simulcasting agreements would no longer need to reach 95 percent of their designated market’s population, and could instead serve their “community of license,” which might be narrower. They also won’t have to carry “substantially similar” programming across both broadcasts, which means they’ll be able to reserve some content exclusively for ATSC 3.0.

None of this means ATSC 1.0 will disappear anytime soon. Broadcasters acknowledge that the ATSC 3.0 audience is still too small, and they claim there’s no incentive to withhold their most valuable content from the majority of their viewers.

Still, the proposed rules could help them force things along, either by dangling exclusive content for ATSC 3.0 viewers, delivering their perpetually promised 4K feeds, or subtly degrading the ATSC 1.0 experience.

It also gives them the power to set their own ATSC 1.0 cutoff dates. Broadcasters had petitioned the FCC to mandate an end to ATSC 1.0 broadcasts in the 55 largest markets by 2028, and in all markets by 2030, so that timeframe seems possible even if the FCC doesn’t set dates of its own.

What happens now?

Keep in mind that the FCC has not actually enacted any rule changes yet.

The notice of proposed rulemaking still needs to be published in the Federal Register, which in turn will kick off a public comment period. That’ll run 60 days from the date of publication, plus another 30 days for replies. It’s unclear when that date of publication will be, especially with a federal government shutdown still ongoing. (You can already file comments today by searching for docket number 16-142.)

The FCC must also work through some thornier aspects of the transition. It’s seeking comment on things like DRM, a potential tuner mandate for TV makers, and whether broadcasters should have to dedicate a specific amount of spectrum for television. (They’re eagerly eying unrelated uses for ATSC 3.0, such as enterprise datacasting, as new revenue streams.) The FCC also hasn’t ruled out hard cutoff dates for ATSC 1.0, and could revise its proposed rules based on feedback or propose further rulemaking in the future.

One thing is clear, though: The way you get TV over the public airwaves is going to change, and it’s not going to be easy to navigate. Let’s just hope it doesn’t turn people off free antenna TV for good.

Author: Jared Newman, Contributor