• Bitcoin price rebounds off the ascending channel’s lower trendline, hinting at a possible bottom.
• NUPL revisits its April bottom level, where Bitcoin last launched a 53% rally.
• A thick cost-basis wall above $109,683 remains the level Bitcoin must clear to confirm a real launch from the bottom.

Bitcoin price corrected almost 4% over the past 24 hours before rebounding above $102,100 at press time. Even with a 30-day loss near 9.7%, several market signals now line up in a way that suggests a possible Bitcoin bottom may be forming. And it might just help BTC move towards a new all-time high.

The structure is not confirmed yet, but the clustering of signals is stronger than in recent weeks.

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Ascending Channel Support Meets a Fresh Bottom Signal

Bitcoin has traded inside an ascending channel since April. The lower trendline has acted as reliable support since early spring, and the latest bounce from this line on November 4 keeps the channel intact. When bottoms form inside rising structures, the channel floor is usually the first place where strength appears.

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At the same time, NUPL — a metric that shows whether holders sit on unrealized profit or loss — has dropped to about 0.44. This is near the lowest zone since April 8, when NUPL touched 0.42 and marked the exact cycle bottom. After that, Bitcoin rallied from about $76,700 to above $116,900 by late May. That’s almost a 53% surge.

Now, the same combination appears again: a bounce from the channel floor and NUPL returning to its historical bottom zone. That is why traders think a possible bottom is starting upward.

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But just like someone looking up at a summit, Bitcoin now faces one strong ridge directly above — the level blocking the view.

Cost-Basis Heatmap Reveals the Level Blocking the Bitcoin Price Breakout

The cost-basis heatmap shows where the largest pockets of BTC supply sit. These pockets often block upside moves because many holders react when the price returns to their entry levels. One of the strongest clusters now sits between $109,895 and $110,192, backed by 117,078 BTC. Other strong BTC clusters exist before that, but this zone has the deepest of colors, especially in the near term.

That zone also lines up with the 0.618 Fibonacci level on the Bitcoin price chart, at $109,683, one of the strongest technical resistance points. Until Bitcoin clears this band, the possible bottom cannot fully convert into a recovery. Every bounce under this level might eventually fail.

A daily close above $109,683 would be the first signal that the ridge is cracking. A stronger confirmation comes above $112,652, which aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci area. Above that, Bitcoin can target $116,435 and even the previous peak near $126,301.

If BTC price fails again and drops back to the channel floor, the pattern still holds. But if Bitcoin breaks below the lower trendline, the bottom setup gets invalidated. In that case, price could slide toward $98,758, or even lower, which would weaken the entire bottom hypothesis.

For now, the ascending channel, the fresh NUPL bottom zone, and the heatmap cluster all point to the same idea: a possible Bitcoin price bottom is staring at a peak — but one major level still blocks the view.

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