• Whales bought 3.36 billion DOGE in a week, and the ETF countdown began on Nov 7, yet the Dogecoin price remains weak.
• Hodler Net Position Change shows long-term wallets still in heavy outflows, rising 138% in a week — the group with a proven record of triggering past DOGE bounces.
• Dogecoin price sits below a major cost-basis cluster, with $0.164–$0.165 acting as the final support before a drop to $0.158; upside needs $0.178 and $0.186.

Dogecoin is down about 1% over the past week and dropped another 7.3% in the last 24 hours, making it one of the weakest large-cap coins during the latest market dip. The ETF noise did not help either. The countdown for the Bitwise spot Dogecoin ETF began on November 7, but DOGE has barely moved since then.

Whales have been buying too, yet the price keeps sliding. The charts show that one group can stop Dogecoin from breaking down, and they have not returned yet.

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Whales Buy and ETF Buzz Builds — But Price Still Drops

Buying from whale wallets holding 100 million to 1 billion DOGE has continued since November 7. On that day, their holdings were 30.75 billion DOGE. Now they hold 34.11 billion DOGE. They added around 3.36 billion DOGE in one week. At today’s price, that represents more than $550 million in accumulated value.

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Even with this level of buying, DOGE is still down 1% over the same period. The ETF countdown also had no effect. Price stayed flat while institutional interest increased.

When whales buy and the price does not respond, it usually means another force is stronger. That force is long-term holders.

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This Hodler Group Has a History of Triggering Rallies and Bounces

The Hodler Net Position Change shows long-term wallets have been selling aggressively. This metric tracks whether long-term holders are adding (inflows) or removing (outflows) coins.

On November 9, long-term holders removed 62.3 million DOGE. As of November 13, that number has jumped to 148.3 million DOGE, leaving long-term wallets. That is a 138% increase in selling pressure in less than a week.

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This same group triggered earlier price reactions:

• Between September 6–7, the metric flipped from outflows to inflows, and DOGE jumped about 33% shortly after.

• Between October 15–16, the same shift produced a smaller bounce of around 5% after a few days.

These moves show a clear pattern: price strength usually returns when long-term holders stop selling and begin adding again. Right now, the signal remains deep in outflows. Until it flips again, DOGE cannot build a real recovery.

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Dogecoin Price Nears Breakdown Zone — One Level Holds the Entire Structure

DOGE now trades near $0.163 and sits near its largest cost-basis support cluster. The cost-basis heatmap shows the strongest concentration of holders between $0.164 and $0.165. As long as this zone holds, DOGE can stay stable and attempt a bounce or two.

If DOGE closes a daily candle below $0.164 (which is currently possible), it will slip under this cluster. With almost no heavy support levels beneath it, the price can drop quickly. The next key level is $0.158, only 2.6% lower. A breakdown there exposes $0.151 and deeper losses if the market stays weak.

On the upside, the DOGE price needs a move above $0.178 to show early strength. A stronger short-term reversal needs a clean break above $0.186. But neither move can hold unless long-term holders return and shift back to inflows.

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