Which is why Digiday has taken a slightly different approach to 2026. Instead of predicting what might happen, here is what Digiday believes won’t actually happen in next year.

TikTok’s ownership in the U.S. will not be cleared up

However long it takes (12 months and counting), the U.S. deal with China over TikTok cannot live in limbo forever. But in the meantime, marketers are simply getting used to living with its uncertainty.

As Brainlabs’ managing director of paid social, Michelle Wiltz put it, the political theater around TikTok isn’t designed for resolution but for leverage. Both governments benefit from keeping the ambiguity alive.

“2026 won’t deliver a clean answer about TikTok’s U.S. ownership,” she said. “Instead, it will reinforce a new operating reality: geopolitical ambiguity is a feature, not a bug and smart marketers plan for resilience, not resolution.”

Nothing has come close to what Twitter was in terms of TK. Even as X, its real-time factor is its USP — something no platform has been able to replicate.

And while ads are already being tested on Threads, it’s still a long way off from getting the type of attention that warrants it becoming a viable advertising track in its own right, rather than a nice add-on placement in Meta’s Advantage+.

As Collective Measures’ group director of performance media, Lauren Beerling noted, Twitter wasn’t just a text-based feed, it was heavily driven by journalists, politicians, breaking news, and cultural urgency.

“Threads is intentionally avoiding that energy, meaning it won’t inherit the same commercial value,” she said. “Meta seems far more focused on making Threads a ‘pleasant conversation app’ than a real-time newswire. That will attract users, but not the intent or immediacy that generates big ad revenue.”

Snap will not finally make a lot of money

This year was probably one of Snap’s strongest years yet. By the end of Q3, the company had made $1.51 billion in quarterly revenue. But when compared to that of its peers: Meta, YouTube, TikTok — it’s still a drop in the ocean. 

Basis Technologies’ client strategy and insights partner, Colleen Fielder made the point that eMarketer estimated Snap will only claim 2.1% of social ad spend in 2025.

“Snap’s alternative revenue paths feel limited — the Bitmoji subscription is fairly surface-level and while there’s a lot of buzz around a Perplexity partnership, it’s far too early to treat that as a major revenue engine,” she said. Plus Australia’s ban on users under 16 and an ongoing lawsuit with the city of New York — both complicate growth and advertiser confidence. A dramatic profitability jump next year seems unlikely.”

AI spending will not replace jobs

Throughout 2025, there’s been an underlying narrative: AI equals efficiency, so headcount should decrease. Except the latest industry layoffs proved that they weren’t necessarily designed to cut costs on headcount, but to open up additional revenue for AI spending.

“Companies will continue to use AI to reduce labor costs — especially at the top, where efficiency narratives sell well to boards and CFOs,” said Brainlabs’ managing partner of retail, Dan Connor. “What will slow is the belief that high spending itself equals progress. Companies will stop equating massive AI budgets with innovation; 2026 is the shift from exuberance to efficiency.”

OpenAI will not have an ads business

Everything we’ve seen so far points to one thing only: it’s no longer IF OpenAI builds an ad business, it’s when. That’s been indirectly confirmed by CEO Sam Altman himself, head of applications Fidji Simo, the latest hires of chief revenue officer Denise Dresser and Christina MacDonald — lead counsel for ads in ChatGPT. Platforms don’t make moves without intention.

“Even with the recent ‘Code Red’ which caused OpenAI to pause the ads rollout to focus on product quality, the groundwork is clearly being laid,” said Robert Kurtz, strategic business outcomes partner at Basis Technologies. “2026 feels like the year they start testing ads in earnest.”

Back in April, Judge Brinkema sided with the DOJ that Google held illegal monopolies. By September, the closing stage of Google’s ad tech antitrust trial saw the DOJ target the platform’s ad tech stack — AdX. While it’s not asking for a total divestiture, pulling the exchange apart would weaken its ad server.

Google’s remedies argued that the DOJ’s proposals are excessive, and offered alternative solutions — it simply wouldn’t take the result lying down. Still, that’s not to say the judge will agree, and the ultimate outcome isn’t expected until next year.

Retail media exploded in 2025, creating a more complex environment for everyone. And it looks set to continue next year.

“I expect continued fragmentation in 2026 with a few players growing faster, but not true consolidation yet,” said Haley Feazell, vp of global media at Mindgruve. “Real shakeouts are likely later, once growth slows, and operating costs rise — similar to the timeline we’ve seen with CTV, is my expectation.”

Similarly, Basis Technologies’ evp, integrated client solutions, Amy Rumpler added that consolidation certainly won’t occur in some of the larger networks that have more advanced capabilities, and ad revenues, already realized (think CVS and Kroger).

“The benefits to them owning and operating their own independent networks, where they profit off of O&O inventory and audience data, is too far along to entertain consolidation with another entity,” she said. “Unless the deal was massive (like Amazon buys all of Kroger and consolidates it with their Whole Foods brands), I don’t see it happening.” 

Perplexity will not end the year as an independent company 

Potential investors spent 2025 at least considering the idea of buying Perplexity. Apple execs reportedly held internal talks about acquiring the AI company, as did Meta — though the latter decided to invest in ScaleAI instead.

Still, what it does mean is Perplexity has spent much of the year in the shop window, while its attempts to scale its ad business barely got off the ground. But by partnering with major companies throughout 2025, such as Snap, PayPal, Pitchbook and Getty, improving its publisher monetization efforts, and releasing its browser, Comet, Perplexity has strengthened its product reach and increased revenue flow, which ultimately make Perplexity more attractive to investors or acquirers considering making an offer — and likely will next year.

Amazon will not beat The Trade Desk

No one can deny that Amazon is a competitor to The Trade Desk, but it still isn’t a rival. And that’s because The Trade Desk is the DSP to the open web. It’s big enough that it hasn’t had to lower fees, and has focused on being a good partner to its agency clients. 

And while Amazon will continue to try and claw away at advertisers’ TTD budget (we’ve already seen from reports of Amazon offering like-for-like tests, funded by Amazon) as part of its wider aim for its DSP to become the backbone for the open web.

Livestreaming won’t work for YouTube

YouTube showed its renewed confidence in live streaming with its latest product updates during its Made on YouTube event this year. And with the worries about AI overtaking creators and content, live actually bypasses those concerns.

“Live is the most human format we have: messy, unedited, impossible for AI to fake convincingly (at least for now),” said Natalie Silverstein, chief innovation officer at Collectively.

But more importantly, YouTube, for the most part, introduces features and tools with a long-term goal in mind. 

“I think it will work because everything they touch turns to gold,” said Shamsul Chowdhury, former Jellyfish exec and social media expert. “Live video has that rawness to it, almost like that added authenticity. And if they can have some brand safety measures, advertisers will play.”