• Bitcoin ended 2025 down 5.7%, raising concerns about a 2026 bear market.
• Experts argue traditional four-year cycles may no longer define market behavior.
• Extreme downside hinges on liquidity shocks, leverage failures, or stalled institutional flows.

2026 has begun amid significant uncertainty about how the crypto market will perform this year. This unease is particularly notable after 2025 unfolded in a manner contrary to widespread market expectations.

As outlooks remain divided, one key question remains: Will 2026 bring one of the most extreme crypto bear markets yet? BeInCrypto spoke with several industry experts to explore what this year could hold.

Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle May No Longer Define the 2026 Outlook 

BeInCrypto previously noted that expectations for crypto markets in 2025 were broadly optimistic, supported by a pro-crypto US president and favorable macroeconomic tailwinds, including Federal Reserve rate cuts and liquidity injections. 

Despite these catalysts, the market finished the year in the red. Bitcoin ended 2025 down 5.7%, while a sharp fourth-quarter sell-off saw the asset fall 23.7%, its worst Q4 performance since 2018.

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The disappointing performance has forced many experts to revise their outlooks and question the market’s upcoming trajectory. At times of doubt, investors often turn to historical patterns for guidance.

For Bitcoin, the four-year cycle has been one of the most referenced frameworks for anticipating the market’s next moves. Under this model, 2026 would typically signal the beginning of a bear market.

So, does that mean that the market is headed for further declines? Well, not necessarily. A growing number of experts argue that this pattern may no longer hold. 

Nic Puckrin, analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, said the four-year cycle may no longer be the most effective framework for analyzing Bitcoin. According to him, market dynamics have shifted significantly following the approval of the ETF and the growing presence of institutional capital.

“While 2025 ended up being a disappointing year in terms of performance, it certainly wasn’t in terms of institutional acceptance and adoption. From now on, the driving factors will likely be macroeconomic or geopolitical in nature, not time-based. Bitcoin is increasingly dancing to the same tune as other financial assets now, not just the rhythm of its halvings,” Puckrin remarked.

Jamie Elkaleh, CMO, Bitget Wallet, added that traditional macro cycles are now more reliable. According to him,

“Bitcoin’s sensitivity to global liquidity, M2 expansion, and Fed policy increasingly outweighs the mechanical impact of halvings. We are effectively seeing a ‘de-halving’ of crypto, where institutional ETF flows create a steadier bid that smooths supply-shock volatility.”

Similarly, Andrei Grachev, Managing Partner at DWF Labs, emphasized that while the halving still matters, it no longer explains market behavior on its own. 

He shared that as crypto becomes more institutionalized, it increasingly behaves like a global asset class rather than a self-contained system. This makes simple cycle-based prediction models less reliable.

Why 2026 Defies the Classic Bull–Bear Framework

If not the four-year cycle, some analysts point to longer-term historical frameworks such as the Benner Cycle. Under this model, 2026 is labeled a “Years of Good Times, High Prices, and the time to sell Stocks and values of all kinds.” 

If the pattern were to hold, it would imply a broadly bullish environment. Does that mean a new bull run is inevitable? Experts caution that the answer is no longer that straightforward. 

Elkaleh told BeInCrypto that the market’s failure to meet bullish expectations in 2025 marks a clear transition from speculative excess to a macro-correlated asset class. 

“Rather than a binary bull or bear outcome, 2026 is shaping up as a period of structural consolidation. Excess leverage has been flushed, but the underlying architecture — ETFs, corporate treasuries, and clearer policy frameworks such as the GENIUS Act — suggests any downturn is likely to establish a higher floor than previous cycles. As rate cuts stabilize the cost of capital, this consolidation could evolve into a more disciplined, sober bull phase later in 2026 rather than a speculative surge,” he stated.

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Grachev echoed this view, arguing that 2026 may not align neatly with traditional market labels.

“I don’t think that 2026 will fit cleanly into a classic bull or bear narrative. Instead, we might start to see divergence. Bitcoin will still drive the markets, but I’m not convinced that other crypto assets will follow as closely as they did in prior cycles,” he noted.

The executive also mentioned that while altcoins are expected to remain volatile, the range of outcomes may be far wider than in the past. Taken together, these developments suggest a more disciplined and demand-sensitive market structure. 

Grachev stressed that the “painful reset” on the October 10 crash has left the market in a healthier position. Going forward, markets will be less fragile and more demand sensitive. 

Lastly, Puckrin described the past few months as a repricing phase, marked by long-term “OG” holders selling and institutions buying the excess. 

“Over the next few months, I still expect the market to rebalance, setting the stage for a new all-time high next year. But there will likely be more pain and volatility along the way,” he commented.

Crypto’s Bear Case for 2026: What Could Go Wrong

While the broader outlook remains cautiously optimistic, the market has a track record of defying expectations. BeInCrypto asked experts to outline which factors could realistically trigger or intensify an extreme crypto bear market in 2026.

According to Puckrin, an extreme bear scenario would likely require a convergence of factors. This includes tightening global liquidity, a prolonged risk-off environment, and a structural shock. 

For Bitcoin, such a shock could emerge if digital asset treasuries collectively begin selling into an already fragile market, unable to absorb that level of supply.

“The bursting of the AI bubble could also be a catalyst that brings crypto down. However, if liquidity flows and demand comes back, this bear case scenario becomes less likely in 2026,” the analyst forecasted.

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Elkaleh mentioned that an extreme crypto bear market in 2026 would likely be driven by external shocks rather than inherent weaknesses in the crypto sector. 

“Key risks include an AI bubble bursting and triggering a sharp sell-off in US equities, renewed Fed tightening if inflation remains sticky, or a systemic trust event such as the failure of a major exchange or an overleveraged corporate treasury. In a scenario where institutional inflows stall amid geopolitical instability, the lack of new buyers could accelerate capital flight and push prices toward realized levels historically around the $55,000–$60,000 range,” the executive detailed. 

Konstantins Vasilenko, co-founder of Paybis, said an extreme bear market in 2026 would likely represent an extension of current conditions, characterized by an institution-driven market with limited retail participation.

“If institutional flows slow or pause while retail remains sidelined, downside pressure can persist without a clear catalyst for recovery,” Vasilenko asserted.

Maksym Sakharov, co-founder and group CEO of WeFi, warned that future market stress could emerge from leverage.

“Some new ‘safe yield’ product or algorithmic stablecoin that works until it doesn’t. Or another exchange running a fractional reserve scheme behind the scenes. The trigger is always leverage, hiding somewhere it shouldn’t be,” he revealed to BeInCrypto.

How the Market Could Avoid a Bear Cycle

On the other hand, experts also outlined the factors that could invalidate the bear case entirely and support a renewed bull market. Grachev suggested that the bearish outlook weakens primarily due to two factors: a healthier leverage profile and an influx of capital with longer investment horizons.

He elaborated that, compared to previous cycles, the reduced excess risk has led to more disciplined market behavior. At the same time, more pragmatic regulatory approaches are lowering barriers for institutional participation.

“If institutions start deploying capital again after year-end (which they commonly do) and if regulatory clarity continues to improve, the crypto market will have more supportive conditions for a healthier market,” Grachev reiterated.

Elkaleh suggested that the bear case would weaken significantly if signs of sovereign adoption or large-scale tokenization of financial assets emerge. He noted that if a G20 nation were to add Bitcoin to its strategic reserves, or if US regulators enable broader capital-market tokenization, Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative could shift from speculative to essential.

“At the same time, mainstream adoption of RWAs, on-chain stablecoin payments, and favorable US policy developments could anchor demand in real utility. Combined with a potential liquidity supercycle — driven by fiscal stimulus or a weaker US dollar — these factors could overwhelm cyclical pressures and support a renewed bull phase, with upside toward the $150,000+ range,” Bitget Wallet’s CMO affirmed.

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Mark Zalan, CEO of GoMining, shared a longer-term perspective, noting that resilience in the crypto industry is built when structural demand begins to outgrow cyclical sentiment. He pointed to three main drivers:

• Macro and policy catalysts: Sovereign adoption, strategic recognition of Bitcoin, or rate shifts driving capital toward hard assets.
• Sustained institutional inflows: Sustained ETF and treasury demand absorbing supply even during market drawdowns.
• Real-world usage growth: Wider use of Bitcoin for payments, collateral, and hedging beyond speculative activity.

How to Identify a Crypto Bear Market Before It Shows in Price

Whether 2026 becomes a bull market, a bear market, or something in between, it will be important to watch for early signals that could indicate what lies ahead.

For Puckrin, the focus is less on short-term price moves and more on market structure. He noted that persistent breakdowns below the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, combined with repeated failures to hold key resistance levels, would signal a “red flag.”

“Around $82,000 is seen as a true market mean – the average cost basis of active investors – so this is an important price level to watch. Similarly, $74,400 is Strategy’s cost basis, so that’s another key threshold. A breakdown below these levels wouldn’t automatically indicate an extreme bear market is here, but it would warrant caution,” he disclosed to BeInCrypto.

Elkaleh added that before price action alone confirms a deep bear market, several on-chain signals tend to emerge first. A sustained decline in wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC would indicate that more sophisticated participants are reducing exposure.

He added that if on-chain buying demand weakens while prices remain relatively stable, it often suggests the market is being supported by leverage rather than genuine organic interest. At the same time, continued growth in stablecoin supply can signal rising stress, as capital shifts into defensive positions while staying within the crypto ecosystem.

By contrast, Sakharov argued that the opposite trend would be more concerning. He mentioned,

“Forget price, and watch where the dollars are going. If the stablecoin market cap shrinks, it’s a solid sign that the capital is abandoning the ecosystem entirely. That’s different from a crash where money just rotates or sits on the sidelines waiting. I’d also track real usage on stablecoin rails. If the infrastructure stays busy, the downturn is just narrative cleanup.”

Meanwhile, Grachev believes the earliest signals tend to come from derivatives and liquidity conditions, as that’s where changes in risk appetite are most apparent. 

Persistent negative funding rates, declining open interest, and thinning order books would signal a more defensive posture, as participants reduce exposure and capital becomes increasingly cautious.

“When it becomes harder to move size without affecting the market, it signals that liquidity is pulling back and risk tolerance is tightening. You also see stress surface quickly in incentive-driven projects. If activity drops sharply once incentives fade, it suggests demand was largely reflexive rather than durable. As the market matures, these structural signals matter more than short-term price moves. Prices can move temporarily, but liquidity, depth, and capital behavior are much harder to manipulate,” the executive conveyed. 

As 2026 progresses, the crypto market is increasingly shaped by macroeconomic conditions, institutional behavior, and liquidity dynamics, rather than fixed historical cycles. While the risk of further downside remains, experts suggest the market is entering a phase of consolidation and divergence, where structural signals and capital flows matter more than simple bull or bear classifications.

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