It is fascinating to watch how Apple operates when the rest of the tech world is tapping the brakes. While most smartphone manufacturers are bracing for a tough year in 2026, Apple seems to be preparing for yet another victory lap. A fresh investor note from analyst Jeff Pu gives us a rare peek behind the curtain at Cupertino’s strategy, and if his predictions hold water, the iPhone 18 era is going to be about much more than just a new camera bump or a slightly faster chip.

What stands out immediately is the contrast in market confidence. Pu is forecasting a broader industry slump in 2026, predicting a 4 percent drop in global smartphone shipments. He points to rising memory costs and a lack of excitement in the budget Android market as the main culprits. Yet, in typical Apple fashion, the company appears poised to swim upstream. Pu estimates Apple will actually grow its shipments by 2 percent, hitting roughly 250 million units. That would push their global market share to 21 percent—a steady climb from previous years. It seems the current iPhone 17 lineup is doing a lot of the heavy lifting here, exceeding production expectations and proving that demand for premium devices isn’t fading as fast as some feared.

But the real headline grabber for enthusiasts is the hardware roadmap

For years, the “iPhone Fold” has been a mythical device, constantly rumored but never seen. Pu’s note suggests 2026 is finally the year, but with a twist that might divide fans: the return of Touch ID. According to the report, Apple’s first foldable will ditch Face ID entirely, likely due to the engineering headaches of fitting complex sensors into a slim, folding form factor. Instead, users will authenticate via a fingerprint sensor, a feature that has been absent from flagship iPhones for years.

The device itself sounds like a beast, sporting a 7.8-inch internal screen that effectively puts an iPad Mini in your pocket, paired with a manageable 5.3-inch cover display. The chassis is rumored to be a blend of aluminum and titanium—a smart move to keep the device durable without making it feel like a brick.

Interestingly, Apple seems to be rethinking its launch calendar as well. The note suggests a split release strategy: the high-end iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and the new Fold would drop in the fall of 2026, while the standard iPhone 18 and a new “Air” model would arrive later, in the spring of 2027. This effectively keeps Apple in the news cycle year-round and prevents the lower-cost models from getting lost in the hype of the Pro launch.

Under the hood, this generation is shaping up to be an AI powerhouse

Pu highlights a shift to next-generation N2 silicon and advanced WMCM packaging. In plain English, this means chips that are not only faster but significantly more efficient at handling the kind of heavy lifting required for on-device AI. With 12GB of memory becoming the standard, Apple is clearly building these phones to run a more advanced, conversational version of Siri directly on the device, reducing the need to send data to the cloud.

Ultimately, this leak paints a picture of a company that isn’t just iterating; it is aggressively segmenting its lineup to find growth in a saturated market. By reviving Touch ID for a specific use case and splitting its launch cycle, Apple is signaling that the “one size fits all” era of the iPhone is officially over.