• $76,000 marks MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin breakeven, turning price action into a balance-sheet event
• Falling below support risks unrealized losses dominating earnings optics despite strong Q4 prices.
• Recent high-priced BTC buys revive “buying the top” criticism ahead of earnings.

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is set to report Q4 2025 earnings after market close on February 5, making Bitcoin’s struggle to hold the $76,000 level more than a technical battle.

Bitcoin’s price is now directly shaping the company’s earnings narrative, investor sentiment, and the credibility of its leveraged Bitcoin treasury model.

Bitcoin’s $76,000 Technical Support Bears Balance-Sheet Consequences for Strategy

As of this writing on February 4, Bitcoin is trading at $76,645 after briefly dipping to an intra-day low of $72,945 in the previous session.

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The move has pushed Bitcoin uncomfortably close to Strategy’s average acquisition cost of $76,052 across its 713,502 BTC holdings. This turns $76,000 into a balance-sheet inflection point rather than just another chart level.

A Breakeven Line with Earnings Implications

Under fair-value accounting rules adopted in 2025, Strategy must mark its Bitcoin holdings to market each quarter, allowing unrealized gains and losses to flow directly through earnings.

While Q4 results will reflect Bitcoin’s higher prices in December—when BTC traded above $80,000 for much of the quarter—continued weakness into earnings risks dominating the conversation.

At current levels, Strategy’s Bitcoin position is roughly flat. A sustained move below $76,000, however, would push the treasury into clear unrealized losses. When Bitcoin briefly traded near $74,500 recently, Strategy faced a paper hit approaching $1 billion.

While those losses would not directly alter Q4 numbers, they loom large over sentiment heading into the earnings call and Michael Saylor’s commentary.

Buying High, Again—and the Optics Problem

Complicating matters is Strategy’s recent buying behavior. In late January and early February, the company added Bitcoin at significantly higher prices than where the market is currently trading.

The most recent tranche, 855 BTC purchased at an average of roughly $87,974, was followed almost immediately by a sharp weekend sell-off that sent Bitcoin below $75,000.

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Earlier January purchases were executed at even higher averages, including a tranche near $90,000 and another above $95,000.

This pattern is not new. Strategy has historically ramped up purchases during strong rallies, relying on equity issuance and zero-coupon convertible debt to fund accumulation.

While this approach has paid off over full cycles, it has repeatedly exposed the company to sharp short-term drawdowns, fueling criticism that Strategy often “buys the top” before corrections.

Echoes of 2021–2022

The current episode is drawing comparisons to Strategy’s aggressive buying in 2021, when the company accumulated tens of thousands of Bitcoin near cycle highs. When Bitcoin collapsed by more than 70% in 2022, Strategy incurred billions in unrealized losses and saw its stock plunge by more than 80%.

Though the company survived without forced selling—and later benefited massively from the 2024–2025 bull run—the episode highlighted the volatility and dilution risks embedded in its strategy.

“MicroStrategy owns the most Bitcoin out of all public companies. It just posted a $299M loss b/c of the crypto crash. This is what it looks like to invest in highly volatile & fundamentally worthless assets. A tiny bit of news can result in BIG loses,” commented economics professor Steve Hanke.

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That history is resurfacing now as Bitcoin trades roughly 42% below its October 2025 peak of $126,000, erasing more than $1 trillion in market capitalization over the past four months.

Cramer Turns Up the Heat

Exacerbating the debate, Jim Cramer has publicly urged Saylor to step in once again, calling $73,802 Bitcoin’s “line in the sand.” With this, he pressed upon Strategy to issue another zero-coupon convertible or secondary offering to halt the decline ahead of earnings.

“Strategy’s earnings depend upon it,” Cramer wrote, questioning what Saylor would have to discuss on the earnings call if Bitcoin fails to rebound.

Cramer doubled down hours later, framing Strategy as a de facto defender of Bitcoin price, a notion that runs counter to Saylor’s long-standing refusal to manage short-term price levels.

Rising Criticism and Systemic Concerns

The pressure isn’t coming from Cramer alone. Commentators like Bull Theory have framed the drawdown as evidence that something fundamental may be breaking in crypto, while others have taken a far harsher stance.

Longtime skeptic Michael Burry has warned that sustained Bitcoin declines could wipe out companies with large BTC treasuries. The analyst argues that Bitcoin has failed to behave as a safe haven and could trigger broader corporate distress.

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More extreme critics have gone further, labeling Strategy’s approach structurally unsound. They warn that leverage and dilution could eventually overwhelm the model if prolonged weakness persists.

Why $76,000 Still Matters

Despite the noise, the immediate focus remains clear. Holding above $76,000 allows Strategy to frame its earnings around resilience, long-term conviction, and disciplined accumulation through volatility.

“Volatility is Satoshi’s gift to the faithful,” Saylor chimed.

A breakdown below that level would shift the narrative sharply, toward:

• Unrealized losses
• Dilution from past raises, and
• Questions about whether Strategy still has the financial flexibility to continue accumulating without damaging shareholder value.

With MSTR trading as a high-beta Bitcoin proxy and earnings just hours away, the market is watching closely.

Whether Bitcoin stabilizes or slips further may not change Strategy’s long-term thesis, but it could decisively shape how that thesis is judged this week.

Disclaimer