• Solana trades near $90 as undervaluation signals potential market bottom.
• Holder accumulation persists despite losses, supporting long term bullish structure.
• Break above $104 needed to target $156, loss of $83 invalidates outlook.

Solana remains under sustained distribution pressure following a sharp sell-off, with price carving out a descending wedge on the daily timeframe. This structure closely resembles a setup seen in the prior cycle that preceded a meaningful upside expansion. 

Beyond technical symmetry, on-chain valuation metrics are also signaling that SOL may be entering a basing phase as downside momentum continues to decelerate.

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Solana Holders Are Still Bullish

Solana’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is currently reading 0.65, placing SOL in undervaluation territory. This is the lowest level recorded since September 2023 and represents a near two-and-a-half-year extreme. An MVRV below one implies that the majority of holders are underwater, a condition that often coincides with late-stage corrections rather than the start of fresh impulsive sell-offs.

Historically, prolonged compression at these levels has reduced sell-side urgency. As unrealized losses dominate, participants tend to shift from distribution to patience, waiting for mean reversion. This environment frequently precedes stabilization phases, even if the price remains volatile in the short term.

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Despite the drawdown, holder behavior continues to reflect resilience rather than capitulation. Notably, Solana’s realized price remains above spot price, a configuration that has historically aligned with macro bottoms. The same structure was observed in March 2025, when SOL transitioned into accumulation before initiating a recovery phase.

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That period was characterized by rotation, not panic-driven selling.

Current flows suggest a similar pattern is developing. From December 2025 to the present, investors have accumulated approximately 5 million SOL, valued at $455 million. This steady absorption during weakness points to sustained conviction among larger participants. Historically, consistent accumulation during corrective phases has supported Solana’s medium-term trend reversals.

SOL Price Aims At Long-Term Breakout

SOL is currently trading near $90, approaching the lower boundary of its descending wedge—a critical decision zone. A comparable setup in early 2025 saw price defend this region before breaking higher, ultimately delivering a 43% expansion. Current price behavior is structurally consistent with the early stages of that move.

The existing wedge projects a potential 31% upside, targeting the $156 region. However, confirmation remains conditional. Price must first bounce and reclaim $104 as support to validate bullish continuation. Acceptance above $122 would confirm a breakout and align price action with improving macro and on-chain signals.

That said, downside risk cannot be ignored. If accumulation weakens or reverses, SOL risks losing $83. A decisive break below this level would expose $75 or lower and invalidate the bullish thesis, confirming continuation of the broader corrective trend.

Disclaimer