Ad Tech Briefing: Consolidation in a ‘Hunger Games scenario’ – and a true loss for the industry
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It’s January, and (as per…) the social feeds of most media practitioners are awash with predictions of how the industry will pan out in the coming calendar year.
Many such missives are indistinguishable from the next, but among the platitudinous musings, last week’s 2026 outlook presentation from Arete Research stood out, complete with signature-style hot takes from the firm’s noted analysts Richard Kramer and Rocco Strauss.
The Hunger Games
First off, on a compliance note, the below does not constitute investment advice, with the whirlwind January 15 presentation exploring anomalies in the marketplace, all of which are likely to result in a Hunger Games-style scenario over the next 12 months, per the duo.
All this takes place within the context of the media industry’s “Big Three” – Google, Meta, and Amazon – all of whom absorbed even more ad spend than earlier expected in 2025.
“We are struggling to see from where in the economy we’re finding these incremental pools of spend,” observed Kramer, noting how this results in “Hunger Games competition.”
Indeed, fellow presenter Strauss separately outlined his opinion on how the “Hunger Games scenario” will likely play out with media agencies, as holding companies “don’t have much more to give.”
Of course, all this happens within the context of the AI arms race – Arete’s Kramer pointed out that the 2026 chapter of this era would see a move from “automation to action” in the rush to launch agentic offerings.
He further observed the resulting “spaghetti junction of partnerships” in this rush, as demonstrated by last week’s tie-up between Apple and Google to power the latest version of Siri.
“Distribution really wins in tech, and Google here seems to be in the poll position,” observed Kramer. “They have multiple billion-user properties of their own, they have captured end-point distribution with Apple… the Walled Gardens [continue to] play gatekeepers.”
A ‘tale of woe’ & consolidation
It won’t be news to Digiday readers that many independent ad tech companies listed on public markets had a difficult 2025, with this cohort’s talisman, The Trade Desk, seeing its stock price fall 70%.
“It was a tale of woe,” observed Kramer, noting how of the near-dozen companies within this cohort, only Taboola and Zeta Global were in positive territory, with pretty much the entire category underperforming the S&P 500.
It’s this downward pressure, including the need for ad tech companies to find new revenue streams and manage the risks of disruption as ad spend on the open web declines, that’s likely to lead to further consolidation within this cohort. Arete’s analyst duo noted that many developments in this sector of the ad industry will hinge on the outcome of Google’s antitrust cases.
Of course, independent ad tech can’t bet its collective future on the defenestration of Google Ad Manager, as evidenced by the growth of Amazon’s demand-side platform – a dynamic likely contributing to the precipitous decline in the stock price of other DSPs – with Arete Research predicting consolidation to gather pace.
“Many ad tech companies seem to be for sale right now, or looking to huddle together… this is going to accelerate in 2026,” observed Kramer, who later went on to note, “with the open web, shrinking the space for traditional SSP and DSP buying [ad space] at open web is a reducing market.”
As to the potential nature of such exits? Strauss referenced speculation that Criteo may be up for sale, noting that entities such as OpenAI, PayPal, and Shopify are likely interested in assets as they seek to expand their revenue streams.
Strauss again emphasized that such observations are not investment advice, although he pointed to Amazon as a blueprint for potential new market entrants. “It took Amazon a good four years to build that stuff, to hire the team, to build it, to have a proper data[set] and so on,” he added. The full presentation can be accessed via here.
In remembrance
Elsewhere last week, the tragic death of OpenX CEO John Gentry emerged, with the breadth and depth of tributes to him serving as testament to the high regard in which he was held.
Numbers to know
Insights from the IPA Bellwether Q4 ’25:
- +1.7%: Forecast modest growth in overall marketing budgets for the period.
- –3.1%: Expected decline in main media spend according to the Bellwether data.
- 77%: Share of YouTube views that are now short-form content, as reported in the article’s cited data.
- 58%: Percentage of enterprise brands that saw increased sales revenue after integrating promotions and loyalty strategies
What we’ve covered
The EC further pushes to rein-in Google’s ad tech monopoly
The European Commission published provisional findings on Google’s ad tech stack, ruling that its wares (primarily AdX and DoubleClick for Publishers) have been dominant for more than a decade, further recommending billions in financial penalties, with a forced divestiture also in prospect.
Yahoo is intentionally making its demand-side platform (DSP) less sticky.
What we’ve heard
“A big reason everyone wants agentic to happen is to make DSPs go away.”
— One anonymous source opines on the subtext for the development of AdCP, etc. Ad tech’s Hunger Games are real…
What we’re reading
Advertising group Dentsu’s push to sell global unit close to collapse
The Financial Times reports that private equity groups are turning their noses up at the international arm of the Japanese ad juggernaut.
A Google VP explains why ads make sense in AI search but not Gemini — yet
With Google’s Gemini surging in popularity, speculation has been bubbling in the ad industry that the app might be on the cusp of introducing ads to capitalize on the moment — and help offset the hefty AI infrastructure costs. Google’s Dany Taylor explains more to BI’s Lara O’Reilly.
Google’s agentic commerce plan is here — what marketers must know
Google has provided a blueprint for major brands, writes Ad Age’s Asa Hiken, showing them how to connect to its AI commerce ecosystem that attempts to automate everything from shopping to pizza delivery. However, there are challenges for marketers navigating this complex landscape as Google builds its agentic framework parallel to OpenAI’s ChatGPT.
McClatchy Media accuses Google in federal court of monopolizing online ad sales
It’s that company again. We think you get the idea by now…
