• If Congress only codifies the Reserve, Bitcoin could grind toward $115,000–$125,000 on stronger ETF flows and policy clarity.
• A mandate with steady buys (~200k BTC/year) may push BTC into the $125,000–$145,000 range as demand outstrips new supply.
• A front-loaded mandate could trigger a sharp rally toward $130,000–$160,000, while a watered-down bill risks fading near $112K–$118K.

Bitcoin sits near $113,000 as of September 23, 2025, recovering from a sharp mid-month correction. The broader narrative around US policy has shifted dramatically this year, following President Trump’s executive order creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in March. 

While the reserve already holds about 198,000 BTC in forfeited assets, the decisive moment will come if Congress passes legislation to codify and expand it.

We have used advanced chain prompts, market context, BTC supply, and OTC data on ChatGPT to predict Bitcoin’s price reaction to different legislative outcomes. The analysis shows what the flow math tells us, and which market signals traders should watch.

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What Congress is Debating

• Executive order (March 2025): Established the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and US Digital Asset Stockpile, placing seized Bitcoin into permanent federal custody and prohibiting sales.
• Pending bills: Senator Cynthia Lummis and Rep. Nick Begich introduced the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act, which in some drafts proposes accumulating up to 1 million BTC over five years.
• Key difference: The executive order is reversible by a future president; legislation would lock in the reserve, define reporting rules, and potentially mandate new purchases.

Why Mandated Bitcoin Buying Changes Everything

Post-halving, new Bitcoin issuance is around 164,250 BTC annually (~450/day). A congressional mandate to buy 200,000 BTC per year (~550/day) would exceed new supply. 

Unless long-term holders or miners sell aggressively, government demand would have to pull coins from OTC and exchange balances.

• OTC supply: Estimated near 155,000 BTC in August 2025, down sharply from 2021.
• Exchange balances: Hovering around 2.9 million BTC, trending lower.
• Result: Any large-scale government program would tighten liquidity and force higher clearing prices.

Four Bitcoin Reserve Scenarios To Consider

A. Codify Only

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If Congress simply turns the executive order into law without a purchase mandate, the Reserve becomes harder to unwind politically. This would:

• Lower the US regulatory risk premium.
• Support steady inflows into spot ETFs and corporate treasuries.
• Likely spark a modest grind higher, but not a structural supply shock.

B. Mandate With Slow DCA

If legislation requires ~200k BTC/year and Treasury executes gradually via OTC and ETFs, Bitcoin faces daily demand larger than new issuance. Expect:

• Persistent upward drift, punctuated by sharp rallies on execution days.
• OTC inventory thinning, forcing gradual migration of flows onto exchanges.
• Pullbacks becoming buy opportunities as structural demand persists.

C. Mandate With Front-Loaded Buying

A front-loaded accumulation plan would quickly drain OTC stocks and push Treasury directly into exchange markets. This would:

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• Trigger sharp repricing higher, with volatility spikes and wide slippage.
• Likely attract copycat bids from corporates, pensions, and sovereigns.
• Risk creating unsustainable short-term spikes followed by consolidation.

D. Watered-Down Compromise

If legislation is symbolic but avoids funding or purchase targets, initial headlines may spark a brief pop. However:

• Traders would likely fade the move.
• Market impact would resemble “sell the news” behavior.

Key Trading Signals To Monitor

• Bill text: Look for explicit purchase targets in the final version.
• Treasury guidance: Start date and cadence of any buy program.
• ETF creations: Sustained net inflows >$300M/day would confirm structural demand.
• OTC chatter: Widening spreads and sourcing delays point to supply stress.
• On-exchange depth: Shrinking 1% order book depth signals increasing slippage risk.

BTC Price Levels To Watch

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• Support: $110,000 (post-liquidation base), $100,000 (psychological anchor).
• Resistance: $116,000 (September high), $125,000 (breakout level), and $150,000 (psychological magnet if mandate passes).

Macro Overlay

Federal Reserve policy, US dollar strength, and gold correlations remain critical. A dovish Fed and weaker dollar would amplify upside from reserve legislation, while a hawkish surprise could blunt the effect.

If Congress passes codification only, Bitcoin should benefit from reduced policy risk and stronger ETF flows, likely sustaining an upward grind. 

If lawmakers pass a mandated accumulation program, the flow math is unambiguous. Government demand would outstrip new supply, and with OTC reserves already thin, Bitcoin’s clearing price would need to rise to draw out sellers.

The difference between modest policy tailwind and full supply shock hinges on the final text of the law. 

Traders should prepare for both outcomes. But in either case, US legislation around a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve would mark a historic shift in Bitcoin’s global role as a sovereign reserve asset.

Disclaimer