• ADA tests wedge breakout; $0.38 breakout to decide reversal strength.
• RSI divergence and whale buying align with falling coin activity.
• $0.69 only becomes realistic if buyers defend $0.38 and reclaim $0.47.

The Cardano price is up about 13% since the December 25 low. It has now moved into a breakout zone inside a falling wedge structure. ADA is still down almost 10% this month, but this week is not only about a relief bounce.

Three signals now suggest the trend might be preparing for a reversal if the price confirms the breakout.

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Falling Wedge Now Finds A Reversal Trigger

The falling wedge pattern has guided the price lower since early November. ADA tested the upper trendline of that wedge near $0.69. A daily close above that line opens a potential 79% upside target toward the same $0.69 level. That target comes from measuring the vertical distance between the lowest trendline-touching swing inside the wedge and the highest swing inside the wedge, then projecting it upward from the breakout point.

That could be the ADA price projection if the breakout happens.

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RSI, the Relative Strength Index that measures momentum and identifies overbought or oversold strength, supports that idea.

Between December 1 and December 25, ADA made a lower low. During the same period, RSI made a higher low. This is a bullish divergence. It shows sellers lost strength even while prices made new lows.

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That divergence triggered the current 12.8% bounce. If ADA breaks above $0.38, the RSI divergence could act as a trend-reversal signal, not just a bounce signal.

Whales Accumulate And Coin Activity Drops

Whales holding between 100 million and 1 billion ADA have increased their balances as the breakout signs appeared. On December 26, they held 3.72 billion ADA. That number has climbed to 3.83 billion ADA, an addition of almost $41 million.

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The increase started the day after the RSI divergence flashed and continued as the price moved toward the wedge resistance. This timing matters because whales often accumulate before trend changes, not after.

Coin activity, measured by the spent coins age band, which tracks how much supply is moving on-chain from younger and older wallets, has dropped sharply. On December 27, it registered about 149.43 million ADA. It has since fallen to 116.16 million ADA, a 22% drop.

Lower coin activity means fewer older coins are returning to the market. That reduces sell pressure. When whale buying rises while coin activity drops, it creates a supportive condition for breakouts. These two signals align with the wedge and RSI setup.

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Cardano Price Levels Decide Whether $0.69 Is Possible

ADA trades close to $0.38. A daily close above $0.38 confirms the wedge breakout. If that happens, the structure allows a move toward $0.42. Reclaiming $0.47 is especially important because the ADA failed to recover that level on November 17 and again on December 9–10.

Taking $0.47 back would signal a change in trend structure. Above $0.51 and $0.55, momentum expands, and the path toward the $0.69 projection becomes realistic.

If ADA loses $0.34, the falling wedge remains active, but the chance of a breakout weakens.

Right now, ADA is in its most important test in over a month. The wedge and RSI hint at a reversal. Whales are buying. Coin activity is falling. But without a confirmed breakout above $0.38 and strength toward $0.47, these hints do not become a trend.

Disclaimer