• ETH flashes Pectra-like bullish divergence as Fusaka arrives today.
• Large $1M+ wallets jumped 4.68%, adding at least $623M in value.
• A break above $3,166 could open a path toward $3,653 and beyond

Ethereum price has climbed over 13% since December 1, helped by a broader market recovery and growing optimism ahead of today’s Fusaka upgrade, which improves how efficiently the network processes transactions. ETH is still down more than 17% over the past month, but the recent bounce and several technical signals look similar to what happened just before the Pectra upgrade in May 2025, when Ethereum rallied 56% in seven days.

The question now is simple: can Fusaka trigger that kind of move again?

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Conditions Look Similar to Pectra — And Big Buyers Are Returning

During the Pectra phase (May 6–13), Ethereum surged 56% after flashing standard bullish divergence. That pattern occurs when price makes a lower low, but RSI (Relative Strength Index, a momentum meter from 0–100) makes a higher low. It often signals that sellers are losing control even as the chart still looks weak. More of a trend reversal.

P.S.: The Pectra upgrade dropped on May 7, 2025.

The same setup is forming now.

Between November 4 and December 1, ETH made a lower low, but RSI formed a higher low. That mirrors the exact structure that appeared before the Pectra move.

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Large holders also show early accumulation.

The number of Ethereum addresses holding at least $1 million has risen from 13,322 to 13,945, a 4.68% increase. Since each wallet holds a minimum of $1 million, this reflects at least $623 million in added capital entering the network’s top tier of holders. Big buyers entering ahead of a major technical upgrade is historically a constructive sign.

Together, the divergence pattern and fresh large-wallet inflows build a case that Fusaka could act as a catalyst — if the key breakout level is cleared.

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One Cost-Basis Cluster and One Ethereum Price Level Decide Everything

Whether ETH shows a Pectra-style extension depends on clearing a single supply wall. Glassnode’s Cost Basis Distribution reveals the heaviest near-term supply cluster between $3,154 and $3,179, where about 2.76 million ETH sits. This aligns almost perfectly with the chart’s resistance at $3,166 (a strong resistance and support line).

A clean daily Ethereum price candle above $3,166 would:

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• show buyers have almost absorbed the largest supply zone

• open room for a push toward $3,653

If momentum mirrors the Pectra structure, a 56% extension from December’s lows would target roughly $4,262, which also matches a strong historical ceiling.

On the downside, ETH’s structure weakens below $2,996. Losing that range exposes $2,873, and if selling pressure expands, $2,618 becomes the deeper support to watch for the Ethereum price.

Disclaimer