Enrollment at trade schools is expected to grow 6.6% a year
Skip to navigation Skip to main content Skip to right column
5 min read
As AI threatens white-collar workers and hits some college graduates looking for entry-level roles, young people are pouring into blue-collar job training programs.
Before the pandemic, the trade school market “had been largely stagnant,” according to a March report from the higher education marketing and research firm Validated Insights. Now, fall enrollment at trade schools is expected to grow 6.6% a year.
“There’s nothing wrong with blue collar. There’s nothing wrong with getting your hands a little dirty and sweating a little bit, and making a little bit of money in the process,” said David Rames, senior product manager at Midea, a producer of major home appliances like air conditioners and fridges that has teamed up with more than a dozen trade schools to help train upcoming HVAC technicians.
“We don’t have to worry about AI,” he said, “because AI can’t install an HVAC system.”
Trade schools are just one option for people looking to get into work like welding, plumbing, and HVAC installation. Enrollment at public two-year community college programs focused on vocational and trade programs has surged nearly 20% since 2020, compared to a 2.1% increase at public four-year institutions, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. And registered apprenticeships, where trainees can earn money while they learn, have similarly been on the rise over the past several years.
What’s more, wages in the trades can be comparable to some fields that require a four-year degree without the average student loan debt of nearly $43,000. Last year, the median annual pay for HVAC technicians was nearly $60,000, just below the median wages for all other workers and about the same as the 2023 median annual salary for someone with a degree in the liberal arts. The highest-paid 10% of HVAC workers earn more than $91,000.
And, because there’s a shortage of HVAC workers and high demand for their services, “the price for HVAC contractors has risen greatly,” said Rames.
That’s not the only trade that can pay well, especially depending on the number of hours worked and years of experience gained. Rames noted that after working in the plumbing industry, his son had $55,000 excess cash to park in long-term investments at 22 years old.
“When I tell these kids these stories, their eyes get huge,” Rames said.
In a 1,000-person survey from Zety, an online resume templates service, more than half of Gen Z workers said they were seriously considering blue-collar or skilled trade fields. AI, as well as blue-collar jobs’ pay and opportunities, factored into their thinking.
