• Ethereum enters February weak, with mixed ETF flows and whales accumulating near key support
• NUPL and RSI suggest fading selling pressure, but lack of capitulation limits rebound strength
• Price must reclaim $3,000 and $3,340, or risk breakdown toward $2,690 and $2,120 support

The Ethereum price is entering February 2026 at a critical crossroads. After losing nearly 7% in January, ETH is closing the month in clear contrast to its historical trend. January’s median return stands near +32%, yet this year has moved in the opposite direction. February, meanwhile, has delivered median gains of around +15% since 2016.

The last time Ethereum entered February in a similar position was in 2025. That year, weakness extended into a 32%-37% monthly decline. Whether 2026 follows that path or breaks away from it will depend on how the technical structure, on-chain data, and institutional flows interact in the coming weeks.

Ethereum’s February History and a Falling Wedge Set Up a High-Stakes Test

Looking at long-term data helps frame expectations. Since 2016, Ethereum has posted a median February return of about +15%. It is not the strongest month, but it has delivered more gains than losses.

January tells a different story this year.

Instead of following its +32% median gain, ETH is closing January 2026 down roughly 7%. That puts it closer to 2025’s pattern, when early weakness carried into a February decline.

Sponsored

Sponsored

So Ethereum enters February at a crossroads.

However, not all analysts believe seasonality should be treated as a reliable guide.

The analytics team at B2BINPAY, an all-in-one crypto ecosystem for businesses, cautions against relying too heavily on historical patterns.

“Historical patterns are not something one should rely on blindly. Most of them exist for fairly obvious reasons,” they said.

They also added that ETH currently lacks immediate growth catalysts

“But there is no real reason to assume that February must bring growth. Based on this, it makes little sense to expect February to preserve any ‘historical’ bullish significance,” they highlighted.

They also point to last year as evidence:

“Even if we look at February 2025 as an example, Ethereum fell by 37%,” they said.

That skepticism is reflected in the current chart structure.

On the two-day timeframe, the ETH price remains inside a falling wedge. A falling wedge forms when the price makes lower highs and lower lows. It often signals weakening selling pressure and the potential for reversal.

In this case, the wedge is wide and volatile. A confirmed breakout would project a move of roughly 60%. That is a maximum target, not a forecast.

Momentum adds another layer.

Between December 17 and January 29, Ethereum is about to print lower lows on price. During the same period, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) held near 37. RSI measures whether buyers or sellers control momentum.

When the price falls, but the RSI does not, selling pressure is weakening. This creates early bullish divergence.

If the next ETH price candle holds above $2,690 and RSI stabilizes, reversal odds improve as a lower low on price is confirmed. But confirmation is still missing. That makes on-chain data critical.

Sponsored

Sponsored

On-Chain Data Supports a Rebound, but Conviction Is Fading

On-chain metrics provide the first major validation test. One key indicator is Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL). NUPL measures paper profits/losses.

Ethereum’s NUPL currently sits near 0.19, placing it in the “hope–fear” zone.

This level is important historically. In June 2025, NUPL fell near 0.17, while ETH traded around $2,200. Over the following month, the price surged toward $4,800, a gain of more than 110%.

So NUPL aligns with what the wedge and RSI are suggesting. Selling pressure is easing. Unrealized profits are shrinking. That creates room for upside.

But the signal is incomplete. True market bottoms usually occur when NUPL turns negative. In April 2025, it dropped near −0.22, marking full capitulation.

Today’s reading remains far above that, which means more selling room remains. This suggests relief rallies, not cycle resets.

HODLer behavior reinforces this mixed picture. The Hodler Net Position Change metric tracks whether long-term investors are accumulating or distributing. Throughout January, this metric stayed positive.

Accumulation peaked on January 18 at roughly 338,700 ETH. By January 29, it had dropped to around 151,600 ETH. That represents a decline of more than 55%. So holders are still buying, but with far less conviction.

This fits with how B2BINPAY analysts describe the broader market environment.

“Demand and supply are currently balanced: buyers are willing to buy at roughly the same levels where sellers are willing to sell….The market needs a clear impulse either to the upside or to the downside for the picture to become clearer,” they said.

Taken together, NUPL and holder activity validate the rebound case, but show weakening conviction.

Sponsored

Sponsored

That shifts attention to the next deciding group: big money!

Whales Are Accumulating, but ETFs Are Still Missing

Large holders are sending a stronger signal than institutional investors.

Data on supply held by whales shows steady January accumulation. At the start of the month, whales controlled about 101.18 million ETH. By month-end, that figure had risen to roughly 105.16 million ETH.

That is an increase of nearly 4 million ETH. This reflects active buying during weakness.

While price declined from mid-January highs, large wallets continued adding exposure. That supports the ETH rebound case suggested by NUPL and the wedge.

This contrasts sharply with 2025.

At the end of January 2025, whale holdings stood near 105.22 million ETH. By the end of February, that figure had fallen to around 101.96 million ETH. That distribution coincided with Ethereum’s 32% February collapse. Last year, whales sold. This year, they are accumulating.

However, inconsistent ETF flows tell a more cautious story. Several strong inflow days were followed by major outflows. Late January saw withdrawals exceeding 70,000 ETH equivalents.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

This means ETFs have not joined the rebound trade decisively.

Sponsored

Sponsored

John Murillo, Chief Business Officer of B2BROKER, a global fintech solutions provider for financial institutions, argues that January’s ETF behavior reflects tactical positioning rather than outright exit.

“The mid-January outflows from spot-ETH ETFs look less like a structural exit and more like tactical rebalancing. The late-month reversal, led by large inflows into Fidelity’s FETH, suggests that institutional behavior is increasingly two-sided.

…Rather than a wholesale reduction of risk, flows appear fragmented across issuers,” he said.

In Murillo’s view:

“January’s ETF dynamics point to maturation rather than outright retreat,” he mentioned.

Murillo warns that if this continues, derivatives may take control of price discovery, a key risk to price:

“If Feruary brings choppy or subdued ETF flows while derivatives activity continues to expand, the balance of influence may shift from spot demand to leverage-driven price discovery.

February is likely to test whether Ethereum’s price is anchored more by institutional spot allocation or by derivatives momentum,” he mentioned.

For now, whales are optimistic. Institutions remain cautious. That combination supports rebounds, but limits sustainability.

Ethereum Price Levels That Will Decide February 2026

NUPL from earlier shows this is not a confirmed bottom. Downside risk remains.

The first critical ETH price support sits near $2,690.

This aligns with the recent two-day support and prior consolidation. A clean close below $2,690 would signal sellers regaining control. That opens downside toward $2,120.

On the upside, Ethereum must reclaim $3,000 first. This is both a psychological and structural barrier. Price has repeatedly failed here since December.

Holding above $3,000 would signal confidence returning.

Next resistance stands near $3,340. This level has capped rallies since December 9. A breakout would mark a meaningful shift in the ETH price structure.

Above that, $3,520 becomes critical. A sustained break and hold above $3,520 would confirm momentum recovery and open upside toward $4,030.

Disclaimer