EV tax credits were set to expire at the end of September. President Trump’s trade war was tilting the balance in favor of China’s EVs. And automakers are beginning to delay and even cancel some planned models.

Ford seems to realize its timing is unfortunate. Throughout their announcement, the company’s top executives kept hammering one salient point: this was going to be really hard, success was far from guaranteed, and in fact they could even fail.

“Why do I say bet?,” said Ford CEO Jim Farley, dressed in a reflective yellow vest while surrounded by dozens of the company’s Louisville factory employees. “That’s an intentional word, because there are no guarantees with this project. We’re doing so many new things. I can’t tell you with 100 percent certainty that this will all go just right. It is a bet.”

Farley is right to hedge. As he correctly noted, “the automotive industry has a graveyard littered with affordable vehicles that were launched in our country with all good intentions.”

Affordable EVs, in particular, are incredibly difficult to build in the US. American buyers have become used to a certain of hugeness. We like our trucks big, our range limitless, and our cargo capacity herculean. And a truly affordable EV, one priced somewhere in the $25,000-$30,000 range, would likely need to be smaller, slower, and less capable by definition than most of the two- and three-row SUVs currently dominating the EV market.

We saw a little bit of this with Slate Auto’s truck, which claims to reach its “mid-twenties” starting price by stripping out features most people have come to expect in a new vehicle, things like a touchscreen, a cellular connection, a working stereo, and exterior paint options.

Ford isn’t ready to go down that road yet. Instead, its cost savings from come from two central places: the manufacturing process, and the battery.

Ford is following Tesla’s lead in adopting a system that relies on unicasting system that creates massive pieces of the vehicle’s underbody, helping to save time and cut down on the costs associated with manufacturing. There will be more automation, meaning some Ford workers are going to be offered buyouts or transferred to other facilities. These EVs will simply require fewer people to put them together.

The battery, in particular, could put Ford in a tough spot. The company didn’t offer many details except to say that the new midsized truck, which will be the first vehicle produced by this new system, will have a battery that is 15 percent smaller than a BYD Atto crossover.

BYD offers the Atto in two battery configurations: a 49.92 kWh pack and a 60.48 kWh pack. That could mean Ford is looking at a battery with 51 kWh capacity, smaller than first-gen the Chevy Bolt’s 57 kWh pack. That’s tiny, especially by today’s standards of EVs with 300-miles-plus of range. It will be enormously difficult for Ford to sell an EV with a middling range estimate for more than $30,000.

And let’s be real, it’s probably going to end up being a lot more than $30,000 when the truck arrives in 2027. That’s because the Trump administration and Congressional Republicans are actively dismantling every policy that aims to help make EVs more affordable to customers. Ford won’t be able to count on any tax credits or incentives to help bring the price of its new EVs down any more than what the automaker can eke out with its own manufacturing efficiencies.

“The environment for electric vehicles has gotten far more challenging in the U.S. market this year, and the global EV environment is facing increasing domination from Chinese automakers,” said iSeeCars Executive Analyst Karl Brauer. “Given these realities I’m not convinced any U.S. automaker can succeed as an electric vehicle producer.”

Ford hasn’t had any luck on bringing its current EV costs into more alignment. The company lost over $5 billion on EVs and software in 2024, and it predicts that will take a similar hit this year.

Farley likes to talk about challenging China in its EV dominance. But he’s also been more candid about the enormous deficit between that country and the US when it comes to manufacturing and technology. China’s EVs are “far superior” to what American companies have been able to produce, he said last month. And he described China’s rapid rise in the EV market as the “most humbling experience” of his career.

In Louisville, he sounded a lot more optimistic than he has in the past. “No more compliance cars,” he said. “No more loss leaders that require a big check from the company to make. We’re talking about a vehicle that can sustain itself, have strong profits, so all of our workers and the community here has actually a sustainable future.”

Turning those words into reality will be the biggest challenge of Farley’s career. And it could mean the difference between a Ford that’s thriving, or one that’s just a footnote.