Hedera has remained under pressure after a sustained decline kept HBAR trapped within a month-long downtrend. Price has struggled to attract meaningful demand, leaving recovery attempts muted. 

A breakout from this structure requires stronger investor support, which remains limited for now. This lack of conviction is giving derivatives traders time to position cautiously.

HBAR Traders Are Under Threat

Futures positioning shows a clear bearish skew. The liquidation map indicates that short contracts carry greater exposure than longs across key price levels. This imbalance reflects traders’ expectations that HBAR may continue to face downside pressure before any durable recovery takes shape.

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However, this setup creates a potential squeeze scenario. If HBAR escapes its downtrend and rallies toward the $0.1035 resistance, nearly $5 million in short positions could face liquidation. Such an event would force bearish traders to cover, potentially injecting sudden buying pressure and shifting short-term sentiment.

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On-chain momentum signals offer a mixed picture. The Chaikin Money Flow formed a bullish divergence against the price’s lower lows earlier this week. While price continued falling, CMF trended higher, suggesting selling pressure was easing rather than intensifying.

Despite this divergence, confirmation remains absent. CMF has yet to cross above the zero line, which would signal inflows dominating outflows. Capital continues leaving HBAR, albeit at a slower pace. Until this shift completes, the bullish signal remains tentative rather than decisive.

HBAR Price May Not See a Bounce Back Just Yet

HBAR is trading near $0.0903 at the time of writing. Price action at this level has not inspired confidence among investors. Weak participation continues to limit capital inflows, reinforcing bearish conviction among futures traders who see little reason to unwind positions prematurely.

The near-term outlook hinges on whether HBAR can break its downtrend. Continued consolidation above the $0.0901 support would reduce immediate downside risk. If inflows begin improving alongside price stability, HBAR could advance toward the $0.1030 resistance. Reaching this level would place short positions under pressure and potentially trigger liquidations.

Downside risk remains prominent if conditions deteriorate. A breakdown below the $0.0901 support would expose HBAR to further losses. Under that scenario, price could slide toward $0.0830. Continued weakness could extend declines to $0.0751, fully invalidating the bullish thesis and confirming continuation of the broader downtrend.

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