• Bitcoin ignored cooling CPI as capital rotated into gold, not crypto, reviving bear market fears
• Long-term holders and mega whales reduce exposure, reinforcing post-October cycle exhaustion
• $82,800 and $102,000 decide whether Bitcoin enters a bear market or delayed transition

Bitcoin has largely ignored what should have been supportive macro signals. US CPI cooled to 2.7% in December, strengthening rate-cut expectations, yet Bitcoin failed to respond. Instead of attracting fresh capital, the price stalled while money rotated elsewhere.

That disconnect is why the Bitcoin bear market discussion is resurfacing.

Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, recently warned that Bitcoin may have already ended its latest four-year cycle in October, both in price and time. The on-chain and market data since then increasingly support that view.

Data Signals Suggest Bitcoin May Already Be in a Bear Market

Multiple independent indicators now point to the same conclusion: capital is retreating, conviction holders are selling, and Bitcoin is absorbing risk without real demand.

Stablecoin Inflows Have Collapsed Since the Cycle Peak

Stablecoin inflows often act as dry powder for crypto rallies. That fuel has vanished.

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Total exchange inflows for ERC-20 stablecoins peaked at around 10.2 billion on August 14. By December 24, inflows had fallen to roughly 1.06 billion, a drop of nearly 90%.

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That August inflow peak closely preceded Bitcoin’s October high above $125,000, the same period Timmer identified as the likely cycle top.

Since then, fresh capital has failed to return, reinforcing the idea that distribution replaced accumulation after the peak.

Long-Term Holders Have Turned Aggressive Sellers

Conviction holders are behaving differently after October.

Bitcoin long-term holder net position change flipped negative shortly after the cycle high. Selling accelerated from roughly 16,500 BTC per day in late October to around 279,000 BTC recently. That is an increase of more than 1,500% in daily distribution pressure.

This aligns directly with Timmer’s thesis that the four-year halving cycle phase likely ended in October. Long-term holders appear to agree, reducing exposure rather than defending price.

Bitcoin Dominance Is Rising, But Not for Bullish Reasons

Bitcoin dominance has climbed back toward 57–59%, but this is not a risk-on signal.

After the softer CPI print, capital did not rotate into Bitcoin. Instead, it flowed into traditional hedges. Over the past year, silver has rallied by over 120%, while gold is up roughly 65%. At the same time, broader crypto markets have lagged badly.

This shift reinforces the idea that Bitcoin’s rising dominance is not being driven by fresh risk appetite, but by capital retreating into relative safety within crypto.

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That view is echoed by an exclusive market comment shared with BeInCrypto by Ray Youssef, founder and CEO of NoOnes, who highlighted why gold has led the 2025 debasement trade while Bitcoin remains range-bound.

“While gold may clearly be winning the 2025 debasement trade on price performance, the comparison masks a more nuanced market reality. Gold’s recent run to new all-time highs and 67% YTD gains reflect classical defensive investor positioning as capital seeks certainty in a market environment defined by fiscal excess, geopolitical strain, and macro policy uncertainty. Increased central bank accumulation, a softer dollar, and persistent inflation risks have reinforced gold’s role as the market’s preferred defensive asset,” he said.

Youssef added that Bitcoin’s behavior this year has diverged sharply from the digital-gold narrative.

“Bitcoin, by contrast, has recently failed to deliver on the hedge narrative. The asset has not traded like digital gold in 2025, owing to its heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic factors. BTC’s upside is now tied to liquidity expansion, sovereign policy clarity, and risk sentiment, rather than to monetary debasement alone,” he highlighted.

Mega-Whale Addresses Are Quietly Declining

Large holders are also stepping back.

The number of Bitcoin addresses holding more than 10,000 BTC has fallen from 92 in early December to 88. That decline came alongside falling prices, not accumulation.

These addresses often represent institutional-scale players. Their reduction adds another layer of confirmation that smart money is not positioning aggressively for upside here.

Bitcoin Remains Below a Critical Long-Term Moving Average

Bitcoin is still trading below its 365-day moving average near $102,000, a level last decisively lost at the start of the 2022 bear market.

This moving average acts as both technical and psychological support. Failure to reclaim it suggests the market has shifted from trend continuation to regime risk. If price remains below this level, historical precedent points toward deeper downside zones near the traders’ realized price band around $72,000.

Taken together, these signals support Timmer’s warning that Bitcoin may already be in a bear-market phase or closing in on that, even if the price has not fully reflected it yet. Capital has dried up, conviction holders are selling, dominance is rising defensively, and macro relief is being ignored.

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That said, not all long-term cycle supports have broken yet. Those counter-signals, and the exact levels that decide whether this becomes a full bear market or a prolonged transition, come next.

Why the Bitcoin Bear Market Case Is Not Fully Settled Yet

Despite the growing evidence pointing toward a Bitcoin bear market, two long-term cycle indicators still argue against a confirmed structural breakdown.

Also, one reason the Bitcoin bear market case remains unresolved is how markets are interpreting the CPI slowdown. While cooling inflation typically benefits risk assets, the current response suggests investors are prioritizing safety and liquidity over growth.

That does not mean the CPI signal is wrong. It may simply be early, with Bitcoin historically reacting later than traditional hedges once liquidity expectations fully translate into capital flows.

These and the indicators we would discuss next do not negate the bearish signals discussed above. But they explain why this phase may still resolve as a prolonged transition rather than a full bear cycle.

Pi Cycle Top Has Not Triggered

One of Bitcoin’s most reliable cycle indicators, the Pi Cycle Top, has not flashed a peak signal. The indicator compares the 111-day moving average with the 350-day moving average multiplied by two.

Historically, when these two lines cross, Bitcoin has been near or at major cycle tops.

As of now, the two lines remain widely separated. That suggests Bitcoin is not in an overheated or euphoric phase, even after the October high.

This contradicts the idea raised by Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, who noted that the October peak near $125,000 fit prior cycle timing.

In past cycles, true bear markets began after clear Pi Cycle confirmations. That signal is still absent.

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The 2-Year SMA Remains the Line That Matters Most

The second and more immediate counter-argument is structural. Bitcoin is still trading near its 2-year simple moving average, which sits around $82,800.

This level has repeatedly acted as Bitcoin’s long-term trend divider. Monthly closes above the 2-year SMA have historically marked cycle survival.

Sustained closes below it have marked deep bear phases.

So far, Bitcoin has not confirmed a monthly close beneath this line.

That makes December’s monthly close critical. If Bitcoin holds above $82,800 into year-end, the market likely remains in a late-cycle transition rather than a confirmed Bitcoin bear market.

That outcome keeps open the possibility that 2026 reflects delayed upside rather than prolonged downside.

However, if December closes decisively below the 2-year SMA, downside projections toward the $65,000–$75,000 range, referenced by Timmer, gain structural backing.

TL;DR —Key Bitcoin Price Levels To Watch Now

The bearish framework also has clear invalidation levels. A reclaim of the 365-day moving average near $102,000 would materially weaken the bear market thesis. That would align with Tom Lee’s year-end Bitcoin price prediction.

That level marked the start of the 2022 bear market when it broke, and would signal renewed trend strength if recovered.

In simple terms:

• Above $82,800 into December close: transition phase remains intact
• Below $82,800 on a monthly basis: bear market risk escalates
• Back above $102,000: bullish structure begins rebuilding

For now, Bitcoin sits between conviction selling and long-term cycle support. The market is not confirming strength, but it is not fully breaking either.

The December close will decide which narrative carries into 2026.

Disclaimer