• XRP whales absorbed $800 million selling, limiting broader market supply shock.
• Falling Liveliness shows long-term holders accumulating, reducing downside volatility risk.
• Wedge breakout remains valid if XRP reclaims and holds above $2.

XRP price has faced sustained pressure over the past month, extending a broader downtrend that weighed heavily on investor sentiment. Losses accumulated as the asset slipped below key resistance zones, triggering concern among short-term holders. 

Despite this weakness, on-chain data suggests large holders, or whales, are actively redistributing supply. This internal reshuffling appears to be cushioning downside risk and laying groundwork for a potential recovery.

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XRP Whales Are At Work

XRP whales holding between 100 million and 1 billion tokens led the recent sell-off. Over the past month, these addresses sold more than 400 million XRP, valued at $800 million at current prices. 

Such activity typically signals strong distribution pressure and often precedes deeper corrections. However, the market structure this time shows a different dynamic. The bulk of this selling was absorbed by smaller whales holding between 1 million and 100 million XRP. 

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These investors are often considered “strong hands” due to longer holding periods and lower sensitivity to short-term volatility. Because the tokens stayed within large-cap wallets, broader market supply did not spike. As a result, bearish momentum remained limited despite the sizable sell-off.

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Key XRP Holders Are Doing Their Best 

Macro indicators support the view that long-term conviction remains intact. XRP’s Liveliness metric has declined sharply over the last several weeks. Liveliness tracks the movement of long-held coins, offering insight into whether long-term holders are distributing or holding. The indicator is now sitting at a three-month low.

This decline suggests that long-term holders, or LTHs, continue to HODL rather than sell into weakness. Historically, falling Liveliness during downtrends reflects accumulation phases. As LTHs reduce selling pressure, price volatility tends to compress. This stabilization often precedes trend reversals, especially when combined with whale accumulation behavior.

XRP Price Breakout Stays Intact

At the time of writing, XRP price is trading near $1.90, fluctuating between resistance at $1.93 and support at $1.86. The altcoin recently broke out of a descending wedge pattern that had constrained price action since early June. Such breakouts often signal trend exhaustion and early bullish reversals.

Technically, the wedge breakout projects an 11.7% upside move, pointing toward $2.10 as a measured target. Still, near-term conditions suggest a more conservative outlook. Given ongoing consolidation and overhead resistance, reclaiming $2.00 stands out as the most realistic bullish objective. A sustained close above this level would confirm improving momentum.

However, downside risks remain. If XRP fails to breach $1.93 decisively, selling pressure could intensify. A drop below $1.86 would likely push the price toward the $1.79 support zone. Such a move would invalidate the bullish thesis and reopen the door to deeper losses.

Disclaimer