By Kristina Monllos  •  April 29, 2025  •

Ivy Liu

“Uncertainty creates a pensive and anxious consumer,” said Colgate-Palmolive CEO Noel Wallace on the company’s first quarter earnings call last week. “When you have uncertainty in terms of macroeconomics and everything surrounding that, consumers tend to hunker down and they’re very cautious about the outlook.”

Procter & Gamble CFO Andre Schulten noted that they’re dealing with a “more nervous consumer” due to the tariffs and political environment, among other issues. Meanwhile, Jamie Caulfield, PepsiCo’s CFO, during the company’s earnings call last week, said, “Relative to where we were three months ago, we probably aren’t feeling as good about the consumer now.”

Marketers are not only contending with the uncertainty of the tariffs’ (everchanging) impact on their own businesses, but the impact on consumer sentiment, spending and mood. The one common theme for marketers so far this earnings season has been one of worry about consumers’ worries. How that will impact marketers’ advertising spending and messaging will vary by brand and category.

“Clients are trying to get a read on [consumer sentiment] and use that to inform what we do strategically,” said Harry Inglis, head of activation, Media by Mother, adding that Google searches for “what to buy before the tariffs kick in” and “made in America” have increased, which could help inform strategy for clients able to take advantage of consumer interest in those areas. They want to know, “What are consumers saying and how can we weather or, ideally, take advantage of this moment?,” said Inglis.

Some advertisers may lean on messaging that’s reflective of the uncertainty of the moment to appeal to consumers’ worries. “People might be a little more scared of the uneasiness that’s happening in the world so being reflective of that and [finding ways to be] understanding of that has always been a smart strategy,” said Alison Clark, chief client and chief growth officer of Marcus Thomas.

While some marketers may lean on empathetic messaging or the trends of the moment (i.e. what consumers are trying to buy ahead of the tariffs kicking in or looking for products made in America), there may still be a sense of decision paralysis among some marketers. “Business leaders and marketers are not wanting to overreact,” said Jay Pattisall, vp and principal analyst at Forrester, of marketers’ actions so far. “They’re a bit unsure what to do. That’s what I mean by paralysis. There’s a kind of a wait and see mentality that has understandably taken hold.”

Marketers will likely move to (if they haven’t already) pull money away from non-essential channels, said Ross Benes, senior analyst at eMarketer. “There’s going to be a lot of studies put out, and references to old studies, that [a] recession isn’t a good time to stop advertising,” he said. “You get more share of voice because ads go cheaper. You need to keep advertising during a down cycle because you want to retain connection with the consumer. There will be all these studies put out by trade groups. The reality is that a CFO doesn’t give a shit.” 

He continued: “They only have so much money coming in. They need to allocate money where it suits them best. Marketing isn’t the most important thing in the world.” 

The expectation for marketers, agency execs and brand consultants is that marketers will pull back on the brand building advertising and zero in on performance marketing in the coming months to manage the moment. That will lead to a pullback on spending for TV in particular, noted Benes, as it’s one of the first areas marketers will cut from budgets when there’s uncertainty or fear in the market. 

Other cuts marketers will likely make as they worry about consumer spending, sentiment and mood, include discretionary expenditures like hiring additional consultants, extra projects, initiating anything new, which will have ripple effects for agencies, explained Allen Adamson, brand consultant and co-founder of brand consultancy Metaforce. “That’s all going to be frozen right now until there’s some clarity and less uncertainty,” said Adamson.

What we’re watching

Last week, Warner Music Group filed a suit against the cookie company Crumbl. Why would a music behemoth file suit against a cookie company, you may be asking yourself? TikTok and Instagram. The cookie company reportedly used 159 Warner Music Group-owned songs in social posts without getting permission. The case — no matter the outcome — is likely making waves in social media marketing circles as questions surrounding brands’ use of memes, trending creator sounds are commonplace. We’re keeping our eyes on this one. 

By the numbers

The first quarter of 2025 may have left marketers with whiplash, navigating TikTok’s temporary shutdown, tariff-driven trade wars and other markings of what’s expected to be a volatile year. The saying goes, “Hindsight is 20/20.” Here’s a look back at trends and performance across the digital landscape with performance marketing agency Tinuiti’s Q1 2025 Digital Ads Benchmark Report. See details below: 

• Reddit same-store advertising spend jumps 33% year over year in Q1. In addition to strong same-store growth, the number of brands active in Reddit ads has grown markedly over the last year, with 66% more active advertisers in Q1 2025 than in Q1 2024 among Tinuiti clients. The uncertainty around the future of TikTok in the U.S. is helping to push more advertisers to platforms like Reddit to diversify social spend.
• Meta advertising spend grows 11% in the first quarter as CPMs creep up. CPMs rose 4% year over year, but many advertisers saw even more significant increases, with CPMs up by double digits for more than 50% of the advertisers studied for the report.
• Self-serve display advertising accounts for 40% of Walmart investment for participating brands. Onsite and offsite self-serve display advertising accounted for 40% of all Walmart investment in the first quarter for brands deploying both display and search advertising formats. In the first quarter of 2025, 52% of all Walmart display advertising spend went to inventory on Walmart’s website and app, with 48% attributed to offsite inventory. — Kimeko McCoy

What we’ve heard

“I don’t think we would be where we are today in terms of retail media if [Google’s third-party cookies] deadline hadn’t been in place.”

— Media buyer

What we’ve covered

• Industry vets’ dos and don’ts to managing chaos when ‘attention is essentially on clearance’
• As talk of recession looms, smaller brands bet on the value of retail media — here’s why
• The winners and losers of Google’s third-party cookie reversal
  
  

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