The Future of Marketing Briefing: a war, an oil spike and an ad market that can’t see what comes next
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Wars don’t pause for marketing plans but they do rewrite them. The world, for better or worse, keeps spending.
That much has been clear from conversations with ad execs since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran.
In the second week of the war, the furor has been all about oil and gasoline prices. Neither feels like a marketing problem until you remember that oil touches packaging costs, logistics and the margins of some of the world’s advertisers. When all three tighten, prices follow. Higher prices feed inflation, inflation prompts higher interest rates and the whole chain ends in the same place: squeezed shoppers, cautious corporates and ad budgets under pressure.
It’s why ad execs are watching closely.
Oli Green, CEO of independent agency holdco Brave Bison, summed it up when he spoke to me recently: “What’s going on in the Middle East is probably not going to be good for business over the next few weeks and months, but let’s see what happens.”
At this point, that’s about as far as anyone is prepared to go.
The region’s ad market – worth around $7 billion in digital advertising per the IAB MENA – has weathered enough crises to know how to avoid paralysis. Campaigns are being adjusted, not cancelled, while messaging is being recalibrated. But that’s only part of the picture. The more exposed category is export spend: the government money, the airlines and the tourism advertising that flows outward and is far more sensitive to how the conflict unfolds.
Add energy prices, supply chain pressure and softening consumer confidence and the variables multiple faster than any media plan can account for.
That’s not to say marketers are panicking. The nature of where ad dollars now sit – in online channels that can be adjusted in real time – means the wait-and-see posture is easier to hold than it’s ever been.
Observers might look at this and think what follows is obvious: pull back on brand, double down on performance, push spend toward whatever sits closest to the sale. It’s a script marketers have run before. Whether this conflict follows the same plot is another matter entirely.
“If you look at the history of capitalism and advertising since the Second World War, it was always that economics determined politics,” said Daniel Knapp, chief economist at IAB Europe. “Now it’s the other way around. Politics determines economics.”
In other words, the contingency plans most marketers rely on are built for a world that no longer exists – one where rational economics set the rules. The war in the Middle East is the latest symptom of that, not the cause. And with so many variables still in motion, even those closest to the numbers aren’t willing to call it.
Take forecasters Madison and Wall, for instance. They’re about to raise their forecast but in the same breath have flagged that the economic assumptions underpinning it predate the Iran escalation.
“That accumulation of uncertainties and headwinds around geopolitics and inflation and labor and tariffs will eventually impact growth,” said Luke Stillman, managing director at Madison & Wall.
It goes some way to explaining why whatever optimism ad execs had for 2026 was always going to be qualified. The years since the pandemic have made one thing clear: the relationship between the world and advertising is no longer straightforward. The Fifa World Cup, the Winter Olympics and the U.S. midterm elections – the scaffolding for a bumper year was there. So was the small print: that the accumulation of geopolitical, inflationary and policy pressures would eventually find the market, and that the second half of the year was always where the questions would start.
Coca-Cola’s president and chief financial officer John Murphy said as much earlier the week at Citi’s Global Consumer & Retail Conference: “It’s just another example of the need to have a playbook that you can quickly bring into action. And it’s another example of why we continue to talk about having an all-weather approach to dealing with this world that we’re living in.”
This is how the people holding the purse strings think about these moments. To them, conflict abroad resolves into a checklist: costs, currency exposure, supply chain contingencies. Commerce, as ever, finds a way to continue.
“The other piece is the impact on the customer,” said Harmit Singh, chief financial and growth officer for Levi Strauss & Company at the same Citi conference. “It’s early days so we’re going to be watching that space. But we have the product momentum and execution momentum so we should be able to withstand that.”
Numbers to know
2027: The year eMarketer forecasts that CTV will surpass linear TV in ad spend.
41%: Percentage of Gen Z surveyed said they miss when the TikTok had fewer ads and brands on it.
55%: Percentage of marketers in North America that said “underwhelming creative” was their top reason for passing on an agency
37%: Percentage of young streaming subscribers who said they cancelled one or more of their streaming subscriptions due to subscription fatigue.
What we’re reading
YouTube Lays Claim to Another Crown: The World’s Largest Media Company
Research from financial research firm MoffettNathanson found that YouTube’s $62 billion generated in 2025 allowed it to surpass The Walt Disney Company’s $60.9 billion (excluding Disney’s experiences division) to become the world’s largest media company, according to Hollywood Reporter.
How Netflix’s Push into Podcasts Looks on YouTube
As part of podcasters’ deals with Netflix, podcasters receive a cash guarantee for not posting the content on YouTube, and they’re expected to limit the amount of clips posted on other platforms, according to Bloomberg.
The European Parliament released a report on Tuesday, which is a framework for how the European Commission should address AI and copyright law, according to Deadline.
What the Iran War Means for the Funding of AI
While AI-build outs were enabled by the tech companies’ deep pockets, but a prolonged war would slow the economy, the large U.S. government deficit will increase further, and there is still a fear of rising interest rates, according to The Information.
What we’ve covered
Meta’s measurement and attribution updates are welcomed, but not ground-breaking, ad execs say
Last week, Meta updated its click-through attribution as well as rebranded and expanded the scope of “engage-through” metrics – efforts that align it better with third-party platforms. Advertisers are glad of the changes, but have admitted these alone won’t result in budget increases.
Anthropic’s refusal to agree to the Pentagon’s “lawful use” terms of their deal has seen the company gain user support and momentum from seemingly taking a moral high ground.
OpenAI is building the ad tech stack it’s currently borrowing
A month into OpenAI’s ChatGPT ad pilot, the company has already partnered with Criteo, and is reportedly in early talks with The Trade Desk. But no company that plans on relying on external support goes to the lengths of building out a team and infrastructure from scratch, unless the ultimate goal is to own the stack themselves.
The in-house entertainment studio is having its social media team moment
When consumers stopped responding to brands, brands built out social media teams to fix the problem. In-house entertainment studios is the latest answer to brand problems.
