Box office analysts expected A Minecraft Movie to make $70 to $90 million on its opening weekend in the US – instead, it made $157 million, and has now passed half a billion worldwide following its second weekend.

Not bad for a movie that was stuck in development hell for years and years, passing between different directors before landing with Napoleon Dynamite’s Jared Hess.

The success of the film clearly took some by surprise, but anyone who’s tuned in to the continuous success of Minecraft is perhaps less taken aback.

“Minecraft itself is a cultural juggernaut – over 300 million copies sold, and a fanbase spanning kids to adults who’ve been building pixelated empires for years,” Jeff Bock, Senior Box Office Analyst at Exhibitor Relations tells GamesIndustry.biz.

“That’s a massive built-in audience hyped for anything with creepers and diamond pickaxes. The film leaned into this with a star-studded cast – Jack Black as Steve and Jason Momoa which probably pulled in casual viewers who trust those names as they’ve starred in many comparable hits.”

“Now, even the staunchest of naysaying movie executives will be convinced.”

Rhys Elliott, Alinea Analytics

The film’s success seems significant in a year where movies based on traditional family-friendly Hollywood properties – like Snow White and Captain America: Brave New World – are faltering. Minecraft has a uniquely young-skewing audience, which is still where Hollywood tends to find a lot of box office success following the footfall challenges of the post-pandemic era.

“I think the Minecraft movie only exceeded expectations for traditional movie analysts and critics who … dare I say it … have been mostly in their own bubble,” says Rhys Elliott, Head of Market Analysis at Alinea Analytics.

“Anybody with an interest in the games market – or who has raised a young child in the past decade – knew Minecraft would be a hit movie,” Elliott says. “The number of copies of Minecraft that have been sold are roughly equal to the US population.”

Bock says A Minecraft Movie’s success is also the result of studio Warner Bros. picking the right release window and marketing the film correctly. As an adaptation, too, it’s connecting with audiences, regardless of their knowledge of Minecraft – if not critics, who dinged it with a 46% average on Rotten Tomatoes, or more seasoned film fans on the Letterboxd app, where it has a 2.8/5 user score.

“Most importantly, there’s the timing – April 2025 meant spring break crowds and no major competing blockbusters. Warner Bros. marketed this hard, with trailers dropping early (September 2024) to build hype. Plus, Minecraft’s open-ended vibe let the filmmakers get creative, blending game lore with a fish-out-of-water story that didn’t alienate non-players.”

Video game adaptations breaking into the mainstream is not a new thing at this point, either in TV or film. But the unprecedented scale of the Mario and Minecraft movies’ success changes the conversation around feature films more specifically.

“The Mario movie was the biggest turning point for studios realising the potential of games,” Elliott says. “It grossed over $1.3 billion worldwide, making it not only the biggest game adaptation ever (by revenues) but also the second-biggest animated movie. The Sonic trilogy has also been huge.

“The Mario movie even outperformed juggernauts like Frozen and Despicable Me. If studios weren’t paying attention to games before, they certainly were after Mario. And now Minecraft is another feather in that cap. It’s outperformed Barbie in the US box office, and it’s even tracking decently in China so far.”

“Now, even the staunchest of naysaying movie executives will be convinced,” Elliott says.

Coincidence or not, it was a sign of confidence that movie studio A24 revealed the director of the Death Stranding adaptation one day after Minecraft’s opening weekend haul. While the crossover in audience demographic between the two is likely minimal, video games remain relatively untapped by Hollywood, and do offer cinemagoers the kinds of worlds they’ve never seen on the big screen before.

And now, movie executives have more reasons than ever to put them there.

The key thing, of course, is that the adaptation needs to be right. Superhero movies have arguably declined in quality over the past five years, suggesting that diminishing box office returns aren’t just tied to waning interest in the subject matter. Video games adaptations are equally as susceptible if they’re not good enough.

“Movie and TV studios should not look to gaming as a silver bullet,” Elliott says. “As Mario, Minecraft, and Pokémon are the biggest brands of all time with huge generation-spanning fan bases. Both IP licensees and licensors also need to treat the source material with respect, or risk diluting the IP in question and the reputation of the adapting studio.

“Games are not an IP slot machine and their fandom should be respected. Things need to be authentic and respect the fandom. Going forward, we expect to see some poor video game adaptations from studios that are looking to jump on the trend’s hype train without planning their approach properly, which we saw with the Borderlands movie.

“Such products will of course be outshined by the success stories, though, as they always are. Nobody is talking about the Borderlands movie anymore. We’ll be talking about the Mario and now Minecraft ones for years.”

“Don’t rock the boat, just float it. That should be the mantra for Hollywood attempting to adapt video games in the future.”

Jeff Bock, Exhibitor Relations

Elliott suggests the magic combination is a mix of fitting the original IP, catering to die-hard fans in an authentic way, releasing at the right time and being accessible enough for new audiences to parse what’s going on. It seems obvious, but a lot can go wrong in the making of a movie.

Still, fulfilling those criteria has enabled Minecraft to avoid being touched by the cooler critical reception.

Bock’s assessment on what it takes for these movies to succeed is similar. “The numbers speak for themselves – huge fan base, and Hollywood listened – giving hardcore gamers exactly what they wanted. Don’t rock the boat, just float it. That should be the mantra for Hollywood attempting to adapt video games in the future.”

Elliott points out that the positive returns go both ways, too, with Alinea’s sales data for PlayStation showing that Minecraft had sold more than 500,000 copies in March 2025 alone.

According to Elliott, the biggest opportunity for the industry could be one that hasn’t happened yet: timing the release of a successful adaptation with a new game launch.

“Candidly, I think we’re still waiting for the big success story in terms of timing.” Elliott points to the lack of a ‘new entry point’ for the Fallout series as an example of a missed opportunity, even if it led to huge sales bumps for existing titles like Fallout 4 and Fallout 76.

“Success stories, including the recent Minecraft adaptation, have proven that game franchises can captivate mainstream audiences and lead to new games sales, [but] the games industry is not fully harnessing the transmedia potential,” Elliott says.

“Despite soaring viewership, cultural relevance, and peaks for older games, two critical gaps persist for the games market: the lack of accessible gaming entry points for new fans and the absence of timely, revenue-driving game content tied to adaptations.

“When games or updates are not released alongside adaptations, audience excitement tends to dissipate. It’s a missed opportunity.”

That’s likely because publishers are wary about conflating a game’s marketing campaign with a TV show or movie where they have less control over the creative output. If one doesn’t work out, it could damage the other.

But, there’s also opportunity in getting both parts right at the same time. Elliott points to the Mario movie’s release in April 2023 and the launch of Super Mario Wonder in October 2023 as an example of the strategy not being joined up in the most profitable way.

“Could you imagine if Wonder and the Mario Movie launched on the same day? I have a feeling Wonder would have sold far more than the 15.5 million copies it had sold as of the end of December. They should have been selling that thing in the cinemas.”

Mojang, for its part, hosted a collaboration with the movie in Minecraft, capitalising on the audience interest, and continues to deploy major updates for the game regularly.

“We still have a long way to go in terms of launches, but I think the future is bright for game-based transmedia,” Elliott says.

As A Minecraft Movie lurches towards a billion-dollar box office haul worldwide, Bock suggests video games are the right source material for Hollywood’s future bets.

“The success of video game adaptations come down to a variety of factors, but most importantly, these are vibrant myths that have massive fanbases, and, in some cases, have been creating new installments and upgrades for decades.

“Video games franchises are now ripe for the picking.”