• ETH price sits under $3,069, clearing it weakens the head-and-shoulders risk
• Whales added 400,000 ETH as long-term selling dropped 98% this week
• Below $2,809 breakdown risk returns; above $3,449 confirms bearish invalidation

Ethereum (ETH) is trying to break out of a bearish setup. Ethereum price trades near $3,016, up about 2.3% in 24 hours, and now sits less than 2% below a key level that could flip sentiment.

The market is thin going into year-end, so this push comes at a tricky moment. The question is simple: is ETH about to beat the bears, or is this another fakeout?

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Bearish Head-And-Shoulders Meets A Roadblock

ETH is forming a head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart, a bearish structure that usually breaks down if the price loses the neckline. Here, that neckline sits near $2,809. A confirmed breakdown could target a 20% drop based on the pattern projection.

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That drop may not be easy.

On the cost basis heatmap, a huge supply cluster sits between $2,804–$2,823, holding about 3.6 million ETH. This is where a large group of holders last established positions. When the price revisits that zone, those holders often defend it. This cluster is why the Ethereum breakdown risk is still there, but looks less likely.

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In short, the bearish setup exists, but the bears don’t have a clean path.

Whale Buying Meets 98% Drop In Long-Term Selling

Two on-chain shifts now support ETH’s attempt to fight back.

Whales (not including exchanges) increased holdings from 100.65 million ETH on Dec 28 to 101.05 million ETH today.

That’s about 400,000 ETH added. At the current price, that’s roughly $1.2 billion bought in under 24 hours.

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This jump coincided with ETH reclaiming ground from the right shoulder of the pattern. When large holders buy into breakdown risk, it often signals confidence. At the same time, spent coins from the 365-day to 2-year age band collapsed from 45,846 ETH on Dec 27 to 1,076 ETH today.

That’s a 98% drop in older coins moving. The spent coins metric tracks coins that return to circulation after being held without being spent.

Less movement means long-term holders are no longer selling into strength. This removes pressure and lets whales drive the recovery attempt. With whales buying and long-term holders stepping back from selling, supply dynamics now favor upside.

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Ethereum Price Is One Push Away From Beating The Bears

ETH trades near $3,016. The first line that matters: $3,069, which is under 2% from the current level. A daily close above $3,069 breaks the short-term bearish control.

Above that, the bearish pattern invalidation zone sits at $3,449. That level is the top of the head in the head-and-shoulders. A daily close above $3,449 cancels the bearish structure and hands control to buyers.

Below, $2,809 stays the neckline, and losing it reopens the 20% downside. And that could push the price under $2,623 first, invalidating the bear-beating setup. For now, ETH sits between the two outcomes, but momentum and supply behavior favor the bulls if they can clear $3,069.

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