• Solana’s on-chain weakness and rising Liveliness suggest long-term holders are selling, signaling reduced bullish conviction.
• Whale activity in perpetual futures has dropped 800%, showing weaker liquidity and momentum from large investors in September.
• Spot SOL ETF approvals with staking could spark institutional inflows, reversing bearish pressure and fueling a potential breakout.

Solana’s October performance has swung sharply in recent years. In 2020, SOL dropped 46.7%, but by 2021 it gained 43.1%. October 2022 saw a small 1.65% decline, followed by a strong 80.1% rally in 2023 and a 10.6% increase in 2024.

With bearish pressure on the broader market dampening sentiment, there are concerns that SOL could close October 2025 in the red.

Whales Retreat, Long-Term Holders Sell—SOL Faces Bearish October

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SOL’s on-chain performance highlights growing weakness, which could push its price lower over the coming weeks. According to Glassnode, the coin’s Liveliness has soared to a year-to-date high of 0.78, reflecting the strengthening selloffs among SOL long-term holders.

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The Liveliness metric tracks the movement of long-held/dormant tokens by calculating the ratio of coin days destroyed to the total coin days accumulated. When it drops, it is a bullish trend, indicating that long-term holders are removing their assets from exchanges.

Converesly, a rising Liveliness suggests more dormant tokens are being moved or sold, signaling profit-taking by long-term holders.

This trend suggests that bullish conviction among seasoned SOL investors is weakening, setting the stage for further downside in the coming weeks.

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In derivatives markets, activity from large investors has also slowed. On-chain data shows their involvement in perpetual futures has declined, suggesting reduced confidence in SOL’s near-term trajectory. 

According to Nansen, whale activity in SOL perpetual futures has dropped sharply, with positions down over 800% over the past 30 days. 

This decline signals a retreat by large holders, who often drive liquidity and directional momentum. With this capital exit from the SOL derivatives market, investor confidence appears to be weakening, a shift that could push SOL’s price further downward in the coming month.

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Solana ETFs Near Approval? 

Despite these pressures, there is a catch. On Friday, several major asset managers — including Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, CoinShares, Bitwise, Grayscale, Canary Capital, and VanEck — amended their S-1 filings for proposed Solana exchange-traded funds to provide further details on staking.

According to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, these updates suggest “signs of movement from issuers and the SEC,” confirming expectations that spot SOL ETFs with staking could be approved within the next few weeks.

If approved and made tradable in October, these funds could provide the catalyst SOL needs to reverse its current bearish tilt. 

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Solana’s Fate Hinges on ETF Approval

An uptick in institutional interest through ETF inflows would inject fresh liquidity into the market, strengthen investor confidence, and drive a potential price rebound. 

In this scenario, the coin’s price could break above the resistance at $219.21 and rally toward $248.50.

On the other hand, if the current bearish trend persists or the SEC delays its decisions on these ETF applications, sentiment may worsen, pushing SOL further down to $195.55.  If this support floor fails to hold, SOL price could plunge further to $171.88. 

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