• XRP risks deeper losses below $1.69, with February median returns near −8.12%.
• ETF inflows exceed $1.3 billion to-date, but exchange balances signal near-term pressure.
• Reclaiming $1.97 could unlock upside toward $2.41 if bullish divergences confirm.

XRP is entering February under pressure. The token is down nearly 7% in the past 24 hours and about 5% over the past month, reflecting growing weakness across the market. Historically, February has been a difficult month for the XRP price. Data shows its median February return stands at −8.12%, with an average decline of −5%. In 2025, the token fell by almost 29% during the same period.

This year, technical and on-chain signals suggest similar risks are building. At the same time, selective accumulation and early momentum indicators hint that recovery is still possible. Here is what the data shows.

Why the Price Pullback Was Expected

XRP continues to trade inside a long-term descending channel on the two-day chart. A falling channel is a bearish structure where price makes lower highs and lower lows within parallel trendlines.

Since mid-2025, this pattern has kept rallies capped and pushed prices steadily lower. As historically weak February approaches, XRP is drifting closer to the channel’s lower boundary, increasing downside risk.

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Vasily Shilov, Chief Business Development Officer at SwapSpace, said seasonal patterns still matter but are no longer decisive on their own.

“ETF flows are currently more reliable directional drivers,” he explained.

“Range-bound movement is the most likely outcome if macro clarity does not emerge,” he also added.

This technical weakness was not sudden, though.

Between October 2 and January 5, XRP formed a lower high in price, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made a higher high. RSI measures momentum, showing whether buying or selling pressure is strengthening.

This mismatch is called hidden bearish divergence. It often signals that upside strength is fading before a correction begins. That signal flashed in early January and was followed by a nearly 30% decline.

Now, a new setup is forming.

Between October 10 and January 29, the XRP price printed a lower low (active at press time) while RSI is attempting to form a higher low. This creates the basis for a bullish divergence, which can signal trend exhaustion.

For this signal to confirm:

• The next 2-day XRP price candle must form above $1.71, confirming the lower low price setup
• RSI must remain above 32.83

If both conditions are met, downside momentum weakens and rebound potential improves. If they fail, the bearish channel remains in control.

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Money Flow And Whale Activity Show Mixed Signals

While the XRP price trends lower, capital flow data paints a more complex picture.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks institutional and large-wallet buying pressure, has been rising between January 5 and January 25, even as the price fell. This forms a bullish divergence.

It suggests that larger, possibly institutional players have been accumulating XRP quietly during the pullback.

ETF flow data supports this trend. Although January’s overall ETF flows remain net negative due to heavy outflows on January 21, net inflows have improved steadily toward the month-end. Recent green bars show renewed interest from institutional channels.

Shilov said that January’s ETF volatility reflects broader macro caution rather than structural weakness in XRP demand.

He explained that while macro pressures pushed investors toward safer assets like gold and silver, XRP spot ETFs have still attracted more than $1.3 billion in total inflows since launch and have not recorded a month of net redemptions.

“The scale and persistence of inflows suggest a trend reversal is unlikely for now,” he mentioned

However, this optimism is being challenged by exchange data.

XRP’s exchange flow balance has flipped sharply higher since January 17, moving from −7.64 million to +3.78 million. More concerning is the pattern.

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Three consecutive inflow peaks appeared on January 25, 27, and 29. A similar structure formed earlier this month on January 4, 8, and 13. After that, XRP fell from $2.10 to $1.73, a drop of about 18%. This makes the current inflow structure a clear risk signal despite ETF optimism.

Shilov added that ETF demand alone is still not strong enough to fully isolate XRP from broader market forces. Based on SwapSpace trading data, he said XRP’s short-term moves continue to track Bitcoin’s trend and macro risk sentiment when ETF flows turn unstable.

“BTC’s direction, macro stress, and derivatives positioning are likely to dictate risk appetite in the near term,” he noted.

XRP Whales Present An Interesting Perspective

Whale behavior adds another layer.

Wallets holding over 1 billion XRP have been steadily accumulating since early January, when the price correction started. Their holdings increased from 23.35 billion to 23.49 billion XRP, representing significant capital deployment during weakness.

Unlike last year, when mega whales waited until late February to buy, they are building positions earlier this cycle. This reduces the probability of a deep collapse but does not remove short-term downside risk.

Shilov cautioned that large-holder accumulation must be viewed in context. He said current patterns resemble tactical positioning rather than firm conviction.

“Steady accumulation must persist alongside stable ETF inflows,” he said.

“Otherwise, buying can dry up quickly if macro pressure increases.”

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The signals are conflicting, which explains the 5% dip in January and not something as aggressive as near 15% in December 2025.

Key Support Levels, Downside Risks, and XRP Price Recovery Scenarios

The XRP price structure now makes the critical levels clear. The first zone XRP must defend is $1.71–$1.69. A two-day close below this area would weaken the channel support and open room for a larger breakdown.

If this happens, the next major support sits near $1.46. A sustained move below $1.46 could trigger accelerated selling and expose XRP to deeper declines toward $1.24.

This scenario becomes more likely if exchange inflows continue rising and ETF demand fails to strengthen.

On the upside, recovery hinges on one level. XRP must reclaim $1.97 on a two-day closing basis. This would represent a breakout above short-term resistance and signal that buyers are regaining control. This XRP level was highlighted yesterday by BeInCrypto analysts.

A confirmed move above $1.97 could open the path toward $2.41, which aligns with key Fibonacci and channel resistance levels.

Looking ahead, Shilov said the strongest confirmation of a bullish breakout would be a return of sustained ETF inflows similar to November’s launch period.

“Weekly inflows between $80 million and $200 million would build strong momentum above $2.10,” he said.

He also hinted at a possible breakdown level, which aligns perfectly with our analysis:

“Further deterioration in global geopolitical or macro conditions could worsen the XRP dip and push the asset below $1.70,” he highlighted.

The battle now centers on $1.69 support and $1.97 resistance. Whichever breaks first is likely to define the XRP price direction for the rest of February.

Disclaimer