By Sam Bradley and Michael Bürgi  •  June 10, 2025  •

Ivy Liu

Fear of a potential economic hit from Trump’s tariff policies, rather than responses to real impacts, had so far been the main driver of client spending shifts, said Kate Scott-Dawkins, president, business intelligence at WPP Media. “Uncertainty is the key thing,” she added. 

“Obviously there’s a lot of the year still to come, but I see that sense of volatility as a drag on most markets and especially the U.S.”

Excluding political advertising, U.S. ad spend is expected to grow 5.6% in 2025 — down from an earlier estimate of 7%. Though the projections have been revised downward, they’re not as gloomy as observers previously feared. That echoes last week’s Madison & Wall’s report, which found Q1 ad spend growth of 6%, higher than initial projections of 3.6%.

This isn’t all about tariffs, either. The U.K.’s 2025 ad spend growth (still strong, relative to other major ad economies) of 6.5% was revised 0.5% down. That’s a consequence of the British government’s long-awaited fast-food regulations, which will limit advertising by companies selling foods high in fat, salt and sugar. The rules are due to come into force next January, following several postponements.

… and the good news?

Though the downgrade is the headline, for agencies that don’t deal exclusively with top multinational clients, the reality is a bit more upbeat, said Scott Shamberg, CEO of independent media agency Mile Marker. Shamberg is seeing activity in categories including OTC, DTC and financial services.

“While it’s not surprising to see some pull back in ad spend, at least for right now, it seems to be relegated to very large, global clients and those directly impacted by the uncertainty around tariffs,” said Shamberg. “Medium enterprise brands are opportunistically leaning in — pulling budgets forward and finding some incremental to take advantage of demand available now … We are also evaluating the results of many current campaigns, including both awareness and performance, to ensure we are optimizing media mix.”

Meanwhile, there are other important changes afoot. In particular, the sea level on retail media and creator marketing investment is set to rise to unprecedented levels. 

This year, more than half of the global revenue associated with “content” — that is, any advertising that borrows an audience’s attention from some other media, like TV, paid social or display — will come from platforms that publish user-generated media, rather than professionally produced work.

It’s the first time that platforms like Instagram, YouTube and Reddit have collectively exceeded TV and the legacy media in ad revenue share.

Meanwhile, retail media spending is set to exceed the investment put into linear and CTV combined this year, accounting for 15.7% of global ad revenues — another milestone reached on the long, inexorable shift towards digital advertising.

Most of that’s driven by investment in the U.S. and China, but Scott-Dawkins said retail media would continue to be a driver of ad spend growth globally even after those markets have begun to cool, as less mature advertising economies around the world catch up.

“It continues to be one of the fastest growing channels for each of our markets that we look at,” said Scott-Dawkins.

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