• Short-term cohorts have boosted buying pressure, but long-term holders have increased selling by 77%.
• Money flow has weakened sharply, with CMF falling to –0.15 and breaking trend support.
• The XRP price must reclaim $2.38 to flip bullish, while losing $2.06 would invalidate the any bullish sign.

XRP price is down almost 8% in the past week, and even though the last 24 hours have been flat, the absence of red cannot be mistaken for strength.

The chart and on-chain data indicate that XRP is under real pressure, despite one group of investors continuing to buy the dip.

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Short-Term Holders Keep Buying — But One Group Doesn’t Agree

HODL Waves — a metric that shows how much supply each holding-duration group controls — reveals that two short-term cohorts have been steadily accumulating XRP through the month.

On October 16, wallets holding XRP for 1–3 months controlled 8.94% of supply. As of November 14, they hold 9.17%.

Another short-term cohort, the 1-week to 1-month group, has increased from 3.74% to 5.53% of the supply in the same period.

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Despite the XRP price dropping 7.8% over the past 30 days, these groups are accumulating, likely positioning for short-term bounces.

But this buying doesn’t seem strong enough to lift the price for one key reason.

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The Hodler Net Position Change — a metric that tracks the amount of long-term investor supply entering or leaving wallets — indicates that long-term holders are selling aggressively. It showed heavy negative flow on November 3, when long-term wallets removed 102.50 million XRP. Instead of easing, outflows continued to rise.

By November 14, the number had jumped to 181.50 million XRP: a 77% increase in long-term selling pressure in less than two weeks.

This is the core reason the XRP price was unable to bounce: short-term buying is being overwhelmed by long-term exits.

XRP Price Feels the Pressure as Big Money Steps Back

On the chart, XRP is still struggling to break above $2.26, a strong 0.618 Fibonacci resistance level. The push higher is weakening because money inflows are fading rapidly.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) — which measures buying and selling pressure — has plunged since November 10. It now sits at –0.15, showing net outflows. CMF has also broken below a descending trendline, indicating that larger investors are withdrawing rather than adding. When CMF stays negative while breaking trend support, upside attempts usually fail.

If weakness continues, XRP risks losing $2.17, exposing a deeper move toward $2.06. A breakdown below $2.06 would invalidate any short-term bullish attempts.

The only way to regain momentum is a clean daily close above $2.38 — a level that has rejected the price multiple times this month. Clearing it could open a path toward $2.57 and flip the near-term structure bullish.

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