XRP (XRP) has fallen more than 30% over the past month, pressured by a broader market downturn that intensified amid escalating geopolitical tensions and renewed tariff concerns.

At the same time, realized losses have spiked, and exchange inflows have increased sharply. These on-chain signals suggest growing market stress for the altcoin. However, with capitulation metrics rising, the question is whether a potential bottom is forming.

XRP Struggles Amid Large Holder Transfers and Rising Realized Losses 

Large holder activity has heightened concern over XRP’s near-term price outlook. Analyst Darkfost noted that these holders transferred more than 31 million XRP to Binance in one day, amounting to about $45 million in potential sell pressure.

On-chain data showed that the bulk of these transfers originated from larger holder cohorts. Whale wallets holding over 1 million XRP accounted for 14.49 million XRP of the total inflow.

Wallets holding between 100,000 and 1 million XRP contributed 14.236 million XRP. Smaller cohorts contributed comparatively modest amounts, including 2.9 million XRP from wallets holding 10,000 to 100,000 tokens.

The concentration of inflows among large holders is noteworthy. Exchange flows of this size typically raise concerns about potential selling pressure, as transfers to centralized platforms may indicate that tokens are being positioned for possible liquidation. 

However, it is important to note that simple transfers to exchanges do not confirm that sales will occur. Tokens can remain idle on trading platforms for extended periods, be used as collateral, or be moved for internal rebalancing purposes. 

While the inflows increase the risk of near-term volatility, they do not guarantee immediate downside.

“Altogether, this represents a sudden potential sell-side pressure of nearly $45 million that warrants close monitoring. Should this selling pressure persist, XRP may struggle to recover from its ongoing correction in the near term,” the analyst wrote.

Meanwhile, the transfers coincide with growing stress among XRP holders. Data from Santiment shows that XRP’s realized losses have climbed to their highest level since 2022. 

Such spikes typically occur when investors sell at prices below their cost basis, reflecting capitulation or panic-driven exits during periods of heightened volatility.

Further reinforcing the cautious outlook, institutional demand appears to be cooling. This is evidenced by the declining XRP ETF inflows. 

Even with strategic expansions and ecosystem development, XRP has struggled to decouple from the wider market weakness, suggesting that macro conditions continue to outweigh project-specific progress.

Is XRP Nearing a Bottom? On-Chain Data Points to Capitulation Phase

Despite the spike in XRP realized losses, Santiment noted that such developments serve as an “important price signal.” The post added that historically, these spikes often appear near market bottoms. 

Santiment explained that extreme fear tends to peak before the price. Once selling pressure becomes exhausted, even modest new demand can drive a rebound. While this does not guarantee an immediate rally, it increases the probability of a relief bounce.

“When the previous weekly milestone of -1.93B in realized losses occurred 39 months ago, $XRP proceeded to jump +114% over the next 8 months,” the post read.

In addition, BeInCrypto recently highlighted that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) is mirroring a setup last observed in July 2024. This was followed by a price rally.

That said, historical precedents should be interpreted cautiously. Market structure, liquidity conditions, and macroeconomic factors differ across cycles. 

Disclaimer