• XRP price is only 2% away from a key bullish zone between $2.52 and $2.54, where 1.56 billion XRP were last bought.
• Exchange outflows jumped 11.4%, showing falling selling pressure and renewed accumulation near this critical supply cluster.
• A daily close above $2.57 could lift XRP toward $2.81, while a drop below $2.38 would weaken the bullish setup.

XRP entered November with little activity. The XRP price has been trading flat over the past 24 hours with a mild 0.6% gain at press time. While that may seem uneventful, the charts and on-chain data tell a different story.

A bullish pattern is tightening, selling pressure is falling, and XRP now sits 2% away from its “glory zone” — the level that could decide whether this calm start turns into something far bigger.

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Cost Basis Heatmap and Exchange Data Set the Stage

The cost basis distribution heatmap — a chart that shows where investors last bought XRP — highlights a dense cluster of holder activity between $2.52 and $2.54. This is the zone around which 1.56 billion XRP were last accumulated. These cost-heavy zones often act as barriers, as many holders sell when prices return to their buy level.

But this time, the market behavior is shifting.

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According to Glassnode, XRP’s exchange net position change — which tracks whether tokens are moving into or out of exchanges — fell from –866 million XRP on October 30 to –965 million XRP on November 1, marking an 11.4% increase in outflows.

That means sellers are sending fewer coins into the exchanges, and more are being pulled into wallets for holding. Such rising outflows near a key resistance often signal accumulation, suggesting traders are expecting strength ahead rather than preparing to exit.

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If XRP manages to clear the $2.54 zone, the next significant supply wall stands at a much higher level. That’s between $2.80 and $2.82, where another 1.87 billion XRP were last purchased.

However, to go that high, the $2.54 level or the “glory zone” needs to give. That could then confirm the upside momentum. The XRP price chart, discussed next, also highlights that.

XRP Price Pattern Aligns With the 2% Threshold

The technical chart adds to this narrative. On the 12-hour chart, XRP is forming a falling wedge — a pattern that usually signals a potential shift from decline to recovery. Prices are now testing the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $2.50, almost touching the cost-basis zone noted earlier.

A daily close above $2.57 — roughly 2% higher than current levels — would confirm that buyers have cleared the near-term supply (between 2.52 and $2.54). The next key hurdle lies at $2.69, where the upper trendline of the wedge is located.

If the XRP price manages to stay above $2.69, it could open the door to $2.81, a higher cluster-zone marked on the heatmap. Sustained momentum beyond that may extend gains toward $3.10.

However, the XRP price setup has clear invalidation levels. A drop below $2.38, which is the 0.618 Fibonacci level, would weaken the bullish structure. Falling under $2.19 would further invalidate the bullishness, signaling that sellers have regained control.

Disclaimer